Rick Scott’s Broward Goal: 37% of Vote
BY BUDDY NEVINS
Broward County is vital to Gov. Rick Scott, but not because he expects to win.
Actually, he expects to be overwhelmingly beaten. But Scott will only get another four years in the governor’s mansion if he cuts into the Democratic nominee’s vote in Broward.
Scott’s goal: Winning 37 percent in Broward.
That’s the figure used in a GOP e-mail distributed to Broward Republicans Monday.
“It is vital that we deliver at least 37% of total registered voters in Broward County to ensure a statewide victory for Governor Rick Scott,” the e-mail states.
Republicans are only 22 percent of Broward’s 1.054 million registered voters. For Scott to meet his target, he needs to pick up 15 percent of the non-Republican voters – approximately 158,000 independents and Democrats.
That seems like a modest goal…until you look at recent history:
Scott’s goal: 37 percent of Broward’s vote.
2010: Rick Scott gets 33.35 percent.
2006: Charlie Crist gets 35 percent of Broward’s vote
2002: Jeb Bush gets 40 percent of Broward’s vote
So the race will hinge on the county’s 280,000’s NPAs — independents and members of other parties.
With Scott’s negatives in the stratosphere, can he expect to win those NPA votes?
The strategy for the Democratic nominee, almost certainly Crist, is clear. He must keep enough independent voters in his column to roll out of Broward with a huge vote margin.
Is it doable? We’ll know on Nov. 4.
July 28th, 2014 at 3:34 pm
Well, 50 percent of the population are below average intelligence, so Scott only has to get a little over two-thirds of them.
July 28th, 2014 at 3:44 pm
This lifelong Republican will NOT be among the 37% just I was not a part of the 33.35% in 2010.
July 28th, 2014 at 5:09 pm
Buddy,
That 37.5% goal is smart. I don’t know if he can do it, but it is a good goal for a statewide GOP candidate to shoot for in Broward, and if he gets it, he can win. Heck, if he gets 35% in Broward, he could win.
Over the last 14 years, I and a couple of my colleagues at FIU (Dario Moreno) and USF (Susan MacManus) came up with a formula for how a Democrat wins a statewide office in Florida. This was published in our book 10 years ago and is not exactly rocket science, and the percentages have changed a bit, but here it is:
In order for a Democrat to win a “normal” statewide election in Florida, he or she must do ALL (every single one) of the following:
1. Win 65% of the vote in Broward (so Scott’s target of 37.5% is optimistic but by no means unattainable).
2. Win 60% of the vote in EACH of (1) Palm Beach, (2) Leon-Tallahassee, and (3) Alachua-Gainesville.
3. Win Miami-Dade 53-47 (at least… over the past few cycles, this had become easier and easier for Democrats).
4. LOSE Southwest Florida by less than 60% of the vote (i.e. get 40%+ of the vote there).
5. DITTO for Northeast Florida/Jacksonville.
6. LOSE the Panhandle west of Tally by less than 65-35 (basically, reverse the performance in Broward).
7. (And this is the one the media generally focuses on): win the I-4 Corridor from Pinellas to Volusia in Central Florida. That’s where 40% of the vote is right there in a statewide election.
Of course if a Democrat wins the I-4 corridor and fails at one or more of the others, they don’t win a “normal” election.
Also, there are other theoretical ways to win, of course, but these are the common paths since the 1990s.
It’s a hard needle to thread for Democrats. But not tricky and not impossible.
Kevin Hill.
July 28th, 2014 at 5:57 pm
PS:
Allow me to add to the above that this assumes uniform turnout across the state.
Those of you handy with voting statistics may realize that Alex Sink did almost ALL of these things in 2010, and that she is not Governor today.
Why?
VERY LOW turnout in Broward and Palm Beach among other things.
So these things are very much a three-dimensional target (you know where you need to win and by how much, and you have to juggle that with GOTV), and I am sure the smart people in both campaigns know this.
Kevin.
July 28th, 2014 at 6:23 pm
Rick Scott is a thief and a vile human being. I am a Pro-Life Republican and I cannot vote for Rick Scott. This lifelong Republican is voting Democrat.
July 28th, 2014 at 6:41 pm
It will be a tough row to hoe but not impossible. If he plays on the fact that Nan Rich is basically getting ignored by establishment Dems and that Charlie Crist is a two faced, flip flopping opportunist, he might pull it off.
Remember, it is percentages, not real numbers, so if enough Dems don’t vote it helps Rick Scott.
July 28th, 2014 at 7:45 pm
@#2, so are you not voting or voting for another candidate? Both party candidates stink so much I think voter turnout will be at an all time low.
Thus I am not sure any percentage goals make sense. It may simply come down to which side can motivate more of their voters to hold their noses and vote.
At this point more dumb Republicans will show up at the polls to vote against Obama who is not even on the ballot than dumb Democrats thinking they are voting to legalize recreational marijuana or give amnesty to illegal aliens.
With the Florida economy on the upswing – regardless of why – the dumb NPRs will break for Scott.
So Scott will win the election IMHO.
July 29th, 2014 at 9:11 am
37% is easily attainable considering Crist has flip flopped from Republican to Independent to Democrat, has a long-standing association with now convicted felons like Scott Rothstein, and refuses to debate a true Democrat like Nan Rich. Democrats and Republicans alike see through the beard Charlie.
July 29th, 2014 at 9:56 am
It is not the voter % that is important, it’s the voter % turnout that is more important. In 2010 Broward turnout was lower than normal for an off year election, because Alex Sink was an unlikable candidate. This year Scott is extremely unlikable, whereas Crist is likable, which will translate into higher turnout %, which means more democrat votes to offset the rest of Florida
July 29th, 2014 at 5:39 pm
I agree with Lundin. Republican turnout will be low and Democratic Turnout, especially in S. Florida and I-4 will be heavy. If that is the case, goodbye Rick Scott.
July 31st, 2014 at 9:38 am
So none of you give our Democrat brethren enough credit to realize that Crist is not theirs; that he just wants to be in office and doesn’t care WHAT letter is after his name?
July 31st, 2014 at 10:40 am
@Ana Gomez-Mallada
the silly ones vote for ‘party’ not substance and the future impact the ‘party’ candidate once elected will have on their wallet, job, livlihood, etc.
I’ll vote for scott or not vote that line because crist is only in this for the perks that come with the gig – house, security detail, etc.
beats practicing law and getting clients
his behavior and governing is completely unpredictable –
just like his party affiliatio has run the gamut
So not to worry as Scott will have 4 more years
we could do worse
August 3rd, 2014 at 10:09 am
Ricky is a crock and has done nothing but take our tax dollars and given them to his friends and family. The first time in my life I voted for a dem was in 2010. Nov will be the second and I am so turned off by Ricky I have donated to Charlie. He may be a flipper but at least he is not a crock or at least not a big as one. It is a sad state of affairs in today’s politics!!!