Exclusive Poll: Rodstrom Winning Easily
BY BUDDY NEVINS
Charlotte Rodstrom has a two-to-one lead in the January special election to fill her former southeast Fort Lauderdale seat, according to a just completed survey obtained exclusively by Browardbeat.com.
When asked who they would vote for in the upcoming election, 401 likely voters picked:
- Charlotte Rodstrom — 45.39 percent,
- Dean Trantalis — 22.19 percent,
- Chuck Black — 3.74 percent.
The poll also found that more than nine in ten voters were familiar with Rodstrom, while far less knew her opponents.
Roughly 90 percent of the voters said they recognized Rodstrom’s name.
Former Commissioner Trantalis fared a lot worse: Roughly 66 percent knew who he was.
Black recently became active in the city and is a relative newcomer to politics. It showed.
Almost 77 percent of the voters said they had never heard of Black.
To know Rodstrom is to like Rodstrom. She got a better favorability rating than even Mayor Jack Seiler:
- Rodstrom — favorable 61 percent, unfavorable 16 percent;
- Trantalis – favorable 34 percent, unfavorable 14 percent;
- Seiler – favorable 57 percent, unfavorable 10 percent;
- Black – favorable 5 percent, unfavorable 5 percent.
“She’s in the catbird seat,” pollster Jim Kane said. “These numbers are very, very good, especially considering the election is one month away and two weeks of that time is the Holidays when nobody will be paying attention.”
The poll was done by Kane’s USAPoll and paid for by Rodstrom.
It was conducted from November 28 through December 4. The survey sample reached by telephone included 401 City of Fort Lauderdale registered voters who had voted in one or both of the last two elections in Fort Lauderdale Commission District 2. The margin of error is 4.9 percent plus or minus.
The special election was scheduled for Jan. 15 to fill the seat that Rodstrom quit to make an unsuccessful run for the county commission. A runoff will be held March 12 for the top two vote-getters if no candidate wins a majority of the vote in January.
The filing period began today and will last through Friday at 3 p.m.
December 5th, 2012 at 1:49 pm
she will get it done on January 15 and on dais the following week
December 5th, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Charlotte, we need you.
Chuck Black go away. Not your time.
Dean, where have you been the past four years? You disappeared and now we should vote for you?
December 5th, 2012 at 3:52 pm
Hmm. What did this little”poll” cost the “Rodstroms”??. I think its closer than this poll demonstrates. I hope that if this is accurate (who knows) and if in fact Mrs.Rodstrom does prevail on Jan15) w/ over 50% that the City ask Supervisor Of Elections some money back. Dr.Snipes is betting that it goes all the way to March. If again this “poll” is correct than the City Att. should recoup the differnce. I mean if she(Char) wraps this up in Jan. in all seriousness we would defintely be having some money back to the City. What Dr.Snipes going to state I spent it allready on shoes.I saw you @ the Boca Town Center Dr. and no I didn’t bother her. Lookin good per usual Dr. Snipes….. My Freind says to me w/out my glasses I wouldn’t recongnize Santa Claus. So my friend says there’s your buddy Robert, who took away your voting rights. Right. I said she is pretty though ain’t she. Then I had to check on my “boosters” and lost track of her. So Charlotte Rodstrom has it in the bag. Hit it hard Char, just don’t get cocky now. I also disagree w/ th e numbers for Chuck Black. He has really been getting out there lately. Lastly I am sure this “poll” was done before Chuck’ inatitive w/ the a1a delimma.And Broward house didler has seroiusly hurt Dean’s chances. We will see.Good luck to all…..
December 5th, 2012 at 4:33 pm
I would have been real curious to know how Charlotte’s numbers were if those being polled were asked to evaluate her AFTER being made aware of only months after being elected to the City Commission she resigned, ran and lost for County Commission, because she wanted her City spot back the taxpayers no have to to pay $250000 for a special election.
Does it matter? Who knows? I would have to imagine that the voters are going to be made aware of this and at that point we will see if the voters care or not.
FROM BUDDY:
This is a valid point. The poll didn’t ask “push” questions or questions that tested her negatives. However, remember there will be essentially only two weeks to campaign after New Year’s Day. Also, remember that those voting will be among the most motivated knowledgable voters in that District because the turnout will be super-low, probably under 10 percent. That might be a mitigating factor in allowing any negative campaign to gain traction.
December 5th, 2012 at 5:11 pm
That is what makes this race interesting, if the turnout is limited to the “most motivated knowledgable voters” they should be well aware of the reason for and cost of the election.
I think Charlotte should take this in January but if this has to go to a general it could get really interesting.
December 5th, 2012 at 5:16 pm
This survey did not include any message questions or push questions. It was intended as a baseline survey of Districtr 2 likely voters’ impressions of each candidate in the race. The short time (and holidays) will hinder the effectiveness of any campaign messages.
December 6th, 2012 at 9:28 am
Its a disturbing trend when we change democracy to inherited offices. The Rodstroms have been in power for 30 years. Its time for a change.
December 6th, 2012 at 10:28 am
Polls measure when they call the voter so little effort is required by the voter. Elections measure when voters go out of their way to show up. That explains why sometime popular candidates lose elections, supporters don’t bother to show up to vote. They assume things.
As you pointed out, this will be a very small turnout, so only motivated voters will show up.
Therefore nothing is for certain and upsets do happen. It can come down to how many people has Rodstrom angered, and how many people Trantalis can drum up.
Even with the low turnout, Black’s numbers are so low that they only thing they may do is affect who wins between Rodstrom and Trantalis. I don’t see him having any chance of winning.
Honestly, I don’t know C. Rodstrom’s future in politics, but it isn’t at the county level for anytime soon. So either she is re-dedicating her life to the city, or she is eyeing something on the horizon which may or may not develop. I don’t get her motivation anymore.
However, keeping C. Rodstrom’s name out there may help her husband mount a come back in 4 years.
December 6th, 2012 at 11:16 am
Well can you please tell me what % I received. I filed first on Wed and Ran against the Rodstroms in Jan of 2012. Can she win against me this time.
Lester Zalewski
lesterZ.com
December 6th, 2012 at 1:04 pm
Telephone polling led to that infamous newspaper headline “Dewy beats Truman” back in 1945.
Phone surveys still have issues. Today people are not inclined to answer their cell phones from numbers they don’t recognize. Pew Research this year states only 9% of people respond to their surveys. So good science asks how many phone calls were made by Kane’sUSA poll and how many attempts were made to recall unanswered phones to acquire the final 401 respondents in the sample?
When you only talk to people who will pick up and talk, you lose the randomness which allows you to claim a sample is representative. it can not be validly used for projections and significance tests can not be applied. Then, as some have already pointed out, there is the role of the questions being asked and NOT being asked.
Finally, the only genuine candidate from the previous election, and the only one apart from Rodstrom to run a TV campaign, Lester Zalewski, has been left out of the poll altogether. That’s just bad bad social science.
By excluding Lester Zalewski, Charlotte Rodstrom – the survey funder – has already conceded who her main competitor is and the only other viable contender for District II City Commissioner.
December 6th, 2012 at 1:57 pm
“Dewey Defeats Truman” was published in 1948. The telephone polling debacle of Kansas Governor Alf Landon defeating Franklin D. Roosevelt occurred in 1936.
December 6th, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Lester, sit down. There is a better chance that the sun-sentinel publishes a xxx picture of dean with a woman than you do of even being a factor in this race.