Florida Is A Red State, But Changing Population Will Turn It Bluer….Someday
BY BUDDY NEVINS
Despite the cable news pundits and despite the dreams of the Democratic Party: Florida is not Purple.
Florida is Red.
Florida has been Red as a sunset for well over a decade.
Although there is hope for Democrats on the horizon because of the changing demographics, Florida remains a tough nut for Ds to crack.
With the exception of Barack Obama and Bill Nelson, statewide voters have not chosen a Democrat in more than 10 years. If Nelson loses his U. S. Senate seat, the Ds will have nobody in statewide office for the first time since Reconstruction. Democrats will have nothing. Nada.
Bill Nelson is the last statewide Democrat
Any one who proclaims this a Purple State either doesn’t know history or can’t count. Drive north and anyone can see that most of Florida has as many pro-Trump bumper stickers as palm trees.
Democrats have a problem winning and the reason is simply math. Republican areas have greater turnout than Democratic areas.
Once the condo communities in West Broward ran up huge margins for Democrats. They were filled with Depression-era voters who viewed voting as a civic duty and never missed an election.
The turnout in some Broward condos approached 90 percent.
“The problem with too many Democrats is they still think leaders like Henry Lustgarten and Phil Halle will call out their voters and save them with a big turnout. That era is gone forever,” one longtime Broward political observer said, naming two Democratic condo bosses who died years ago.
The Democrats who replaced the retirees don’t view voting with the same reverence. Ethnic minorities and young folks, who Democrats hope will put them on top again, just don’t vote like seniors.
Broward had a 57 percent turnout on Tuesday.
Sumter County, home of the sprawling The Villages and its Republican retirees, had a 78 percent turnout.
Poor turnout causes Democratic losses. Repeated losses has infected Democrat’s ability to run campaigns.
Republicans have the political power in Florida, thus the capability to raise more money and pay consultants more.
“Campaign professionals can make much more money working for Republicans. So many of the most experienced professionals work for Republicans,” one campaign strategist told Browardbeat. “That appears to be one reason Republicans repeatedly out maneuver Democrats in campaign they should be able to win.”
One example can be found in the only real competitive state House race in Broward this year.
The open Northeast Broward beachfront State House District 93 was rated a tossup. When the votes were counted, the GOP’s Chip LaMarca sailed to a 53-46 percent victory over Democrat Emma Collum.
Chip LaMarca
The Broward Democratic Party put a lot of effort into a Get Out The Vote push and an endorsement list passed out at the polls. It wasn’t enough.
Despite the much-heralded backlash against Donald Trump, the Broward Democratic Party failed to pick up a seat containing roughly an equal number of Rs and Ds.
Broward Democrats couldn’t win although their candidate Collum was well-funded, receiving $300,000 in help from one billionaire.
Broward Democrats couldn’t win with female Collum, although this was proclaimed the Year Of The Woman Candidate.
(A number of female judicial candidates smoked male candidates. Agriculture Commissioner candidate Nikki Fried was running ahead of her male Republican opponent at the time this was written.)
Collum’s loss is just another in the drought of Democratic victories across the state. After Tuesday, Florida looks more and more reliably Red for many years to come.
Not so fast, Broward pollster Jim Kane says.
Having worked for both state Republicans and Democrats, Kane sees change on the horizon. Maybe not a Blue Wave, but at least a Blue Ripple.
“I’m optimistic about Amendment 4 (which passed Tuesday and would restore the rights of some felons to vote),” Kane said.
Kane said that the majority of those allowed to vote under the amendment would be minorities and would vote Democratic. In a state where repeated elections are won by razor-thin margins, even a few extra votes could make a difference.
Pointing to the demographic changes that were slowly altering Florida, Kane said that GOP-leaning “older white people” are going to continue to vote in bigger numbers than minorities and young people. At some point, the older folks will die off.
“Demographic change is a process that will go on for years. It’s not overnight,” Kane opined. “A Democrat can be hopeful for the eventual future.”
November 9th, 2018 at 2:27 pm
All this talk about Amend.4 passing and with all these people( inc.myself) won.t amount to much.Alot of people with this Amend.4 passing more than half will not even bother to get their voting card.Although myself come Jan.8 i will be first in line.However, again if u think this new influx of people voting and how it will change the elections- i think not.As far as Demos not being able to prevail its because the Demos don.t support the right canidates. I also think with this mess at the SOE( again) who knows if it will tip the scales for Nelson.Another fiasco down there.I mean every, every election Broward makes national news.When does it stop.To your point Florida is very divided.Upper Fla.is majority Republican, while the southern part of the state is Democractic with the exception of Miami.Will things change?.Probably not.Tell u one thing Gov.Scott is pulling no strings.He wants blood from the SOE off.here in Broward.Dr.Sniped could care less.U will probably see her on the national news soon defending her.office( u watch).I firmly believe its not her fault but her senior staff..Will see how this turns out, but once again Broward SOE off.looks and performs like a circus.Next will come the elephants coming down Broward Blvd…
November 9th, 2018 at 2:28 pm
With Trump drawing more and more black support, the Democrat party may be changed forever. It is the Democrat secret that no one likes to talk about and is a big reason why the US is turning more red.
November 9th, 2018 at 5:02 pm
Emma Collum was a bad candidate because she was an unknown. With a near even split between D’s and R’s in district 93 she was never going to win over the NPAs with an opponent who grew up there, held office there, did a pretty good job in those offices, raised as much money as he did and had the level of name recognition Lamarca has. I suspect he will easily hold that seat until termed out unless the district itself turns blue in the next few years, and let’s face it- that’s not happening.
November 9th, 2018 at 6:06 pm
I totally agree with Jim Kane that the result of Amendment 4 could be a significant increase in Broward and statewide democratic voters in 2020 if, and only if, the democratic party is organized to identify them, get them registered and have a special effort to get these NEW, perhaps first time voters, to get absentee ballots or vote early or vote on Election Day. If they don’t organize that effort starting January 1, 2019 the whole restoration of rights effort will have been for naught. And I believe that it is the job of the Supervisor of Elections to lead the way. While other Supervisors played significant roles in getting the amendment on the ballot, the Broward SOE was mostly out of sight. Sad!
I have supported restoration of voting rights since 2000. It was always an important part of my campaigns for SOE.
November 9th, 2018 at 6:37 pm
“Demographic change is a process that will go on for years. It’s not overnight,” Kane opined. “A Democrat can be hopeful for the eventual future.”
And Florida can be hopeful that Democrat/Socialists do not gain power in this state. Small businesses would be taxed out of the very businesses they have built. Remember Obama:”You didn’t build that, someone built it for you.” Wrong, Entrepreneurs built it themselves and hire others to keep a roof over families’ heads and food on the table.
If Democrat means socialism ala Bernie Sanders, Florida will become a hot mess.
FROM BUDDY:
Vermont isn’t so bad.
November 9th, 2018 at 7:15 pm
I’d argue that the Republican Party will eventually evolve on social issues, particularly crimainal justice, drugs, LGBT equality, etc. which will attract younger voters as the get older and become more fiscally conservative.
As far as Hispanics and other “minority” demographics, are not automatic Democrats. In Florida Hispanics are fairly split and with public figures such as Rubio and Núñez it’ll be harder to push the narrative that the FL GOP is the party of old white men.
Also CBS exit poll showed 18% black women voted for DeSantis so don’t assume anything.
November 9th, 2018 at 8:19 pm
Just a middling turnout by South Florida voters would have turned election
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/fl-op-col-grimm-turnout-20181109-story.html
November 10th, 2018 at 7:13 am
There is a recount and Scott will be the next senator and Desantis is the next governor. Get over it, Democrats.
November 10th, 2018 at 11:33 am
Even if Amendment 4 has only some effect that may be enough to make a difference in the elections. Just look how close the elections are this time.
Under the assumption that now 1 million felons that can now vote would most likely register as democrats. Also, that 15% of them vote, that would be 150,000 mostly democratic votes. That could change a lot of results.
Also, I can say that Vermont is an incredible place to live, since I will be living there 1/2 the year. Small communities (its a rural state), little traffic, really friendly people with strong communities, great food and amazing quality of life. Republican Governor and then Bernie? Nice mix that all get along. Very Norman Rockwell.
November 10th, 2018 at 12:53 pm
Buddy, don’t leave out the Ahearn affect. Mike did an awesome job running LaMarca’s campaign. Mike helped Chip a lot.
November 10th, 2018 at 6:08 pm
And Jim is being polite.
November 11th, 2018 at 9:27 pm
While I agree with your general thesis, in County Commission District 4, a Democrat replaced a Republican in a fairly GOP-friendly district.
November 12th, 2018 at 9:54 am
Trumpism is about keeping America white, plain and simple. Time and demographics are not on their side and they will lose and they know that, which is why his rhetoric is so desperate. They are already losing. Bye Bye bigots.
November 12th, 2018 at 11:53 am
since when did bernie run the state government in Vermont, I must have m missssed something lol
November 12th, 2018 at 12:29 pm
I respectfully disagree with the assessment that this is a red state. When every statewide election in recent memory turns on a percentage point and the Democrats have run terrible candidates from McBride to Sink to Hillary then it appears more purple than red. The undercount in Broward is Snipes’ incompetent ballot design. It’s this years butterfly ballot. It’s likely to have cost Nelson his seat. Democrat/Socialist?! Really? Sounds like too much Fox News has been digested.
November 13th, 2018 at 9:57 pm
#15.You are right concerning the ballotnin reference to wear they put the US senate selection.Voters did not see it , to it was overlooked etc.Dr.Snipes through her own admission will serious consider resigning after this recount is over.Its probably best for her because im assuming she will be dismissed by Desantis.Her recent court apperance where she was counting ballots after 12 noon on Saturday.To not allowing Gov.Scott team not having access to the warehouse etc.I mean did she deliberately hide ballots or not count them- no.But, its incident after incident in these elections that its best she does step down and give the new person or should i say the one appointed by gov.enough time to prepare and get ready for 2020.One point Dr.Snipes states which she seems to think works in her favor was the huge turnout.That had nothing to do work her.Mute point.I mean she needs to turn the page and enjoy her retirement.She is in her 7o’s.Enjoy yourself and enjoy your golden years.Think to yourself do u really need all this.From protesters to national news- nah.Id say time to go.I wish her well.One thing for sure her inner circle.Bellis.Weeks etc need to go out with her as well.This SOE off.needs a fresh new start…
November 14th, 2018 at 9:38 am
One thing ok mistakes have been made at the SOE office.However, i think its beyound inappropriate down right criminal with some of these protesters.They have no right to put Dr.Snipes address, phone number etc.Protest fine but again its beyound inappropriate to do this.I would tell Dr.Snipes until this is all resolved the BSO should escorting her to and from her home to her offices.Seeing all these protesters in the middle of the afternoon, i would like to know what they do for a living.Do they even have a job??.One thing i know Dr.Snipes has worked her entire life.How about them?.Oh they will say the tax payer this and that.U should have no say at all if u r not contributed to paying taxes etc.What contributions do these protesters bring to the table?.Nothing.No job but Yet they r first in line to state lock Dr.Snipes up.Come on.Its u ( protesters with no job) that should go to the back of the bus.I stated previous.Its her senior staff that stink, not her.I understand the buck stops with her.Now with former Gov.Bush weighing in its best u resign Dr.Snipes.On her terms etc.She did win that postion( SOE) fair and square.It would be best to step down before the new gov.office fires her.Harrassment should stop.Sadly, because she is a woman of color alot of these protesters feel they have a free pass to harass her.Whats next?.The white sheets over their heads.Im quite confident with Snipes being from Alabama she can handle all this.My suggestion get police escort and buy a dog.Big grissly biten dog.Call it Molly.Yes. Black lady sporten a white gals name for her dog no less.Give it right back to these protesters..Ps.Mr.Bellis i blame u yes u for alot of this and shitty legal services( that we r paying for) from Weeks…
November 15th, 2018 at 12:54 pm
Just to reiterate #14’s comment to Buddy’s reply to #5 saying Vermont isn’t so bad…your right, they currently have a republican gov. They have a few state legislators that are “progressive”, but the state as a whole doesn’t embrace the same type of “socialism” that’s preached among Florida progressive (repressive socialism)
FROM BUDDY: People of Vermont’s largest city elected Sanders mayor a number of times. The city remained a bastion of free enterprise.
That said, socialism has a very wobbly meaning in real life practice.
Is real socialism practiced in China or Cuba, which allows some free enterprise? Or in Great Britain in the 1950s, which nationalized many big businesses, but far from all? Or the USSR, which had virtually no free enterprise?
Americans falsely believe that the Nortic countries like Sweden are socialist, but their economies are largely a free enterprise economy in every one. Sweden has school choice and every parent gets a voucher. That doesn’t sound very socialist to me.
Meanwhile, many cities in Florida have electrical systems owned by the government. That does sound socialist.
November 16th, 2018 at 5:18 pm
[Saturday, November 10, 2018] Democrats [in Vermont] picked up 12 seats in Tuesday’s election, bringing their total count to 95. Add seven Progressive House members and a few left-leaning independents and the Democratic caucus is comfortably above the 100 votes needed to override vetoes from Gov. Phil Scott.
Republicans have 43 seats, not enough to do much of anything.
https://www.vnews.com/Democratic-supermajority-comes-with-sky-high-expectations-21430643
November 16th, 2018 at 7:59 pm
Bernie Sanders, a New York City native, does not represent the natives of Vermont. His political career started after he moved to Vermont and he won his first race for mayor of Burlington by a 10 vote margin. The culture of Burlington is far removed from the culture of most towns and cities in Vermont, a state of people from sturdy stock who believe in individual responsibility.
Bernie believes that government should be responsible for individuals. Individuals in Vermont believe they should be responsible for their own livelihoods.
Yes, government, through the taxes on businesses and individuals should provide some services for all. However, individuals and entrepreneurs should not be taxed at rates that hamper their livelihoods to support those who game the system, which is what Bernie’s view of the world supports.
November 19th, 2018 at 11:17 am
first of all Vermont is a beautiful state, with very good hard working people.i’ve skiied there for over 30 years without socialism getting in the way. they do, however have a 9% sales tax and a $15 per day hotel/lodging surcharge.as far as snipes goes, didn’t she replace another equally inept election supervisor. and no I don’t think its right to obtain her address, phone # etc. of course it was perfectly fine for the nyt to publish officer wilsons personal info after the ferguson shooting.and the sae feeding frenzy occurred with Peterson.its over. God bless America.
November 23rd, 2018 at 4:51 pm
The idea that Florida will turn blue will depend on who is picked by the Democrats as candidates. Pick Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and their crowd and this state will be bright Red. Those people would threaten the status quo with their share the wealth policies and older voters like the status quo.
December 7th, 2018 at 10:32 am
Look, Jared Moscowitz was celebrated as a Rising Star of the Democratic Party from Broward n now he takes an appointment from the Trump created new Governor. IF DEMOCRATIC ELECTED OFFICIALS PUT THEIR INCOMES AHEAD OF POLITICS THERE IS NO DEMOCRATIC PARTY HERE.
FROM BUDDY:
Moskowitz earned $445,658 as the general counsel for Ashbritt emergency debris removal, according to his 2017 financial disclosure. His new job will probably cost him money.
December 7th, 2018 at 12:50 pm
Ah Mr Nevins, you are so trusting! AS HEAD OF THE DEPARTMENT in the Administration of a RURAL CONSERVATIVE CHRISTIAN TRUMP REPUBLICAN he will make contacts A Jewish Urban Luberal DEMOCRAT FROM BROWARD COUNTY COULD NEVER MAKE IN THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY. Instead of 100s of thousands AFTERWARDS he’ll make MILLIONS PER YEAR he’d NEVER SEE AS A DEMOCRAT FROM BROWARD.