Broward Could Lose House Seat In Redistricting



Steve Geller is playing with numbers again.

The former state lawmaker is an expert on reapportionment.  He has been analyzing census figures and how they affect the redrawing of the legislative and congressional districts.

During the two previous reapportionments, Geller was in the House (1988-1998) or the Senate (1999-2008).  He had a say in drawing the new district lines in 1992 and 2002.

This time around, Geller is analyzing the figures released Thursday by the Legislature on his own.  He has offered to help the state Democratic Party for free with reapportionment.

Steve Geller


Here is how redistricting works:

In existing House districts based on the 2000 census contained an average of 133,186 people.  The 2010 census found that Florida had grown, thus a House district in the future will contain 156,678.

Almost every House seat in Broward with the exception of Martin Kair’s District 97 needs to add people to get it close to the new ideal district population.  Those added people have to come from other existing districts.

“If you drew a ring around Broward, we would have to lose at least one House seat, Geller said.

One less House seat means less clout in the Legislature.

In the past when forced to eliminate a seat, the Legislature has targeted the district of a lawmaker who is leaving Tallahassee because of term limits or for other reasons.

Two House member are termed out after 2012 Franklin Sands of Weston and Ari Porth of Coral Springs.  There are various candidates running for their seats already.

Kair is leaving the House to run for the Senate.

If the Legislature doesn’t follow precedent, there is another obvious option:  Combine the three so-called black access seats into two. The question is whether lawmakers will have the guts to face possible charges of racism by eliminating the seat of a black member?

No one can say what the Legislature will do to Broward.  A lot depends on what happens in Miami-Dade, Palm Beach and Collier Counties which currently have districts that stretch into Broward.

The Legislature meets next January to slice and dice the state into 120 new House seats, 40 new Senate seats and 27 new congressional seats.

Perhaps the biggest statewide fight will be over the two new congressional seats being created.  The figures released this week indicate that the seats will probably be in or near Collier and Lee Counties in Southwest Florida and in Central Florida.

16 Responses to “Broward Could Lose House Seat In Redistricting”

  1. Stop the Presses says:

    The headline of this article should really be:

    “Shocking News – Steve Geller Offers to do Something for Free.”

  2. read between the liness says:

    Geller works for free but the Dems have to pick up his food and beverage bill, OUCH

  3. Steve Geller says:


    Two quick things. First, after we spoke, I did the same quick, back of the envelope calculating for Dade as I did for Broward. Same limitations, which are I had to estimate on the seats that were more than 1 county. Dade should also lose about 1 seat. The biggest unknown there is seat 112, which is one of only 4 seats with too much population. They have 53,870 too many, by far the largest in Southeast Florida. That’s the old David Rivera seat. It takes in part of Collier, dade, and Broward. I arbitrarily assumed that 50% of the extra voters are from Dade. That’s the only major unknown of the 18 seats from Dade.

    The other thing is I should have qualified my comments about working for free for the FDP, particularly after the anonymous jerk made the last comment (isn’t it great how jerks make so many obnoxious comments… anonymously?)

    Rod Smith (FDP Chair) asked for my help. After he asked, I offered to help for free. I wasn’t inviting myself in, I was responding to his request.

    Why do the Gunzburger supporters keep the fight alive when I’ve moved on?

    Steve has always been a dedicated Democrat.

  4. fred says:

    And even bigger battle is going to be the redistricting of the county commission. With all of the growth coming from SW Broward, there is going to have to be a massive shift in that direction. Most of the other districts are going to have to expand to meet population goals and they’re all going to have to expand towards the SW.

    Here are preliminary numbers on the population variance for each district:

    1 Ilene Lieberman -9322
    2 Kristin Jacobs -8219
    3 Stacy Ritter 437
    4 Chip LaMarca -23276
    5 Lois Wexler 4047
    6 Sue Gunzburger -8114
    7 John Rodstrom -5165
    8 Barbara Sharief 63064
    9 Dale Holness -13456

  5. I'm a blue bird says:

    Geller sold out his fellow Dems 10 years ago to give himself a seat he wanted. Don’t trust him.

  6. Same Guy? says:

    Buddy: Isn’t this the same Geller that recently asked you to please go fuck yourself?

  7. Richard J. Kaplan says:

    Looking at Fred’s numbers, it shows a significant shift in population to the south of the county. Especially if Lieberman (District 1) does not defend her district (and even if she does).

    The scenario I see is this:

    District 1 should move south and west (containing parts of Lauderhill?, Sunrise, Plantation, and Weston). That may eliminate those that have expressed interest in running for that district in 2012.

    Districts in the north have to shift a bit north and to the center taking chunks of District 1 (Tamarac, North Lauderdale, Margate, Coconut Creek, Coral Springs and Parkland). District 9 will move west(Sunrise and Lauderhill?, but could pick up part of John’s north district (unincorporated) below if a deal can be worked out.

    Chip and John will have the biggest battle. Chip has to move more into John’s district to increase his population. John, who also needs to add, wants to take over Chip’s district to make it more favorable to him, and get rid of those in his north side of the district that don’t share give him much voting support (particularly in the unincorporated areas). Both can’t happen.

    It is possible for Chip to get a bit of Kristen’s District and for John to take part of District 1 in Plantation on the south end, which may relieve the pressure to conflict.

    Sue, Stacy, Kristen, Barbara and Lois are in the best shape to maintain a good part of their present district as they would want it.

  8. Prognosticator says:

    “One less House seat means less clout in the legislature.”

    You can’t have less than zero.

    FROM BUDDY: Touche!!!

  9. Tiny Bubbles says:

    Barbara Shariefwill have to decide where she is going to live. She is going to lose a big part of her district.

  10. Right says:

    Kaplin is right because Rodstrom needs Chip’s moderate and conservative Ds and Rs, the same people who put Chip in office. There will be a fight for Coral Ridge and the beach.

    If Rodstrom wins, he will run again if term limits are overturned. Then he will lose to a Republican who runs on the platform of Rodstrom being there for too long and violating term limits.

  11. Ann says:

    If I were Gwyn Clarke-Reed, I would be worrying about my district. It’s not a minority/majority district, so it doesn’t have to be preserved. And it’s a logical place to grab the necessary voters to bring the surrounding districts up to their needed size.

  12. Don says:

    Who decides how the county commission districts are drawn: the County Commission or the Legislature?

    FROM BUDDY: The county commission.

  13. anonymous says:

    I did not think Porth was termed out. I thought I read that he is likely not going to run again so he could run for the County Commission. But I could be wrong. Buddy?

    FROM BUDDY: Porth was elected to the Florida House for the first time in November 2004. He is serving his forth consecutive term, which is his final term under term limits.

  14. Jerome says:

    HD 97 is the closest seat in broward to having the population it should. Do you think anything will change with that seat?

    FROM BUDDY: Anything is possible with the Legislature.
    With Marty Kiar leaving, it gives them a chance to carve it up.

  15. Dem-a-gouge says:

    Katie Edwards will run for Marty Kiar’s seat in the House.

  16. Young Dem says:

    If so, then she’s a carpetbagger opportunist