Update: Early Voting Swamping GOP

BY BUDDY NEVINS

 

The flood of Democratic early voting continued Wednesday and it should start to worry every Republican on the ballot.

WPTV in Palm Beach obtained an e-mail from a distressed Palm Beach County Republican who fretted that Democrats were “cleaning our clock.”

The e-mail said the early voting might drag down the GOP ticket in Palm Beach County.

The e-mail in part states:

 

The early and absentee turnout is starting to look more troubling.

As of yesterday, Republicans made up only 22% of early voters and 30% of returned absentee votes.

This is closer to (and worse than) 2008 where we saw 19% EV and 38% of the absentees. 2010 (our blowout year) was 33% of EV and 45% of AB.

Conclusion: The Democrat turnout machine in the county has been very effective and they are cleaning our clock. Even if Romney wins the state (likely based on polls), the turnout deficit in PBC will affect our local races.

But what about Broward?

Broward GOP Chair Richard DeNapoli is not concerned….yet.

“They are front loading the vote,” DeNapoli said. “I don’t think they are getting extra people to the polls.”

DeNapoli said that in Broward the early vote for Republicans has “tracked our percentage (of Republicans) in the county — 22-23 percent.”

He predicted that some early voting Democrats were voting for Republican candidates and that “We will be voting on Election Day and when the absentees are counted.”

But sources say that a poll taken since the start of early voting and the start of Scott Israel’s broadcast ads show the challenger narrowing Sheriff Al Lamberti’s lead.  A second source, quoting a Republican poll, says it found that Israel is running within the margin of error with Lamberti — essentially tied.

“It’s doable now for Israel and it wasn’t before,” an exultant Democratic leader said.

Others who should be worried: State Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff and candidate for U. S. House Adam Hasner, two Republicans running in Democratic districts along the beach.

Another internal Democratic poll is showing Hasner losing by 2 percent to Democrat Lois Frankel.

That is why the Ds are keeping up the pressure. My younger son – a registered Democrat – gets a phone call every day from the Obama campaign reminding him to return his absentee ballot.

Everything remains in flux. The polls, which seem to move daily, also indicate that anybody could win the local races.

Or as that great American philosopher Yogi Berra said, “It’s not over until its over.”



12 Responses to “Update: Early Voting Swamping GOP”

  1. tell the truth says:

    Could a general dissatisfaction be contributing to votes cast across party lines? Likewise the 911 tug-of-war with Lamberti not shouldering the costs could see him out of a job, and Israel in in spite of shortcomings and criticism. Voters aren’t stupid, just way too tolerant at times with the poor performance by those we put in office.

    Not the case in 2012.

    http://election.dos.state.fl.us/nvra/affiliation.asp

    Republican 4,214,241
    Democrat 4,715,684
    Minor 331,458
    None 2,516,757
    Total 11,778,140

  2. Obama Is Winning!!! says:

    The above-quoted statement that a Romney win is likely in Florida based on polls is wrong. The polling shows that Obama is currently ahead of Romney in Florida.

    Obama is also beating Romney in every other swing state except North Carolina.

    Obama now has a firm hold on many more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election.

    The Gordon Gecko / Ayn Rand campaign is going down in flames!!!

    Go Democrats!!!

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/31/1153153/-Obama-s-crazy-good-polling-day

  3. Chaz Stevens, Genius says:

    Dear Red States.

    Us Liberals, Progressives, and non-racists are ticked off at your Neanderthal attitudes and politics and we’ve decided we’re leaving.

    To wit…

    We in New York intend to form our own country and we’re taking the other Blue States with us.

    In case you aren’t aware that includes California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois and the rest of the Northeast.

    We believe this split will be beneficial to the nation and especially to the people of the new country of The Enlightened States of America (E.S.A).

    To sum up briefly:

    You get Texas, Oklahoma and all the slave states.

    We get stem cell research and the best beaches.

    We get Andrew Cuomo and Elizabeth Warren. You get Bobby Jindal and Todd Akin.

    We get the Statue of Liberty. You get OpryLand.

    We get Intel and Microsoft. You get WorldCom.

    We get Harvard. You get Ole’ Miss.

    We get 85 percent of America’s venture capital and entrepreneurs.

    You get Alabama.

    We get two-thirds of the tax revenue. You get to make the red states pay their fair share.

    Since our aggregate divorce rate is 22 percent lower than the Christian Coalition’s, we get a bunch of happy families. You get a bunch of single moms.

    With the Blue States in hand we will have firm control of 80% of the country’s fresh water, more than 90% of the pineapple and lettuce, 92% of the nation’s fresh fruit, 95% of America’s quality wines (you can serve French wines at state dinners) 90% of all cheese, 90 percent of the high tech industry, most of the US low sulfur coal, all living redwoods, sequoias and condors, all the Ivy and Seven Sister schools plus Harvard, Yale, Stanford, Cal Tech and MIT.

    With the Red States you will have to cope with 88% of all obese Americans and their projected health care costs, 92% of all US mosquitoes, nearly 100% of the tornadoes, 90% of the hurricanes, 99% of all Southern Baptists, virtually 100% of all televangelists, Rush Limbaugh, Bob Jones University, Clemson and the University of Georgia.

    We get Hollywood and Yosemite, thank you.

    38% of those in the Red states believe Jonah was actually swallowed by a whale, 62% believe life is sacred unless we’re discussing the death penalty or gun laws, 44% say that evolution is only a theory, 53% that Saddam was involved in 9/11 and 61% of you crazy bastards believe you are people with higher morals then we lefties.

    We’re taking the good weed too. You can have that crap they grow in Mexico.

  4. Angelina Fox says:

    Al Lamberti has just about dashed his own hopes for re-election with last week’s nasty, videos attacking Scott Israel with obvious lies. The people of Broward want a new Sheriff. We’ve had enough of his dirty tricks, his criminal associations and his rogue deputies.

  5. Barack Obama says:

    chaz stevens just owned all republicans.

  6. Plain Language says:

    Most Republicans refuse to wait on line for over one, sometimes two hours to vote while most Democrats will wait patiently on line and vote.

    I find it just wonderful that the tactic Republicans used to gum up the ballot with red meat issues for right wingers, and their every effort to make it more difficult for some to vote, all seem to be backfiring on their own base.

    Republican chickens are coming home to roost and I don’t call that a crisis. I call it justice. That’s what they get for playing loose and dirty with our democracy.

  7. So Flo says:

    Since you clearly conceded Florida as a red state I am fine with that. Enjoy you debt flipping society while we work hard, pay lower texts (still no state income taxes) and retire early in the keys.
    Don’t let the door hit you where the good Lord split you.

  8. Cheryl says:

    Well, in that case…you realize that you Yankees will be awful cold in the dark. Don’t expect Texas refineries to send you gasoline or other red states to supply you natural gas. Don’t even talk to West Virginia about their coal. Let us know how those wind and solar powered cars work for you. You may get Harvard, but if you get cancer, you won’t have MD Anderson. Don’t catch a cold because you won’t have Florida orange juice either. And speaking of Florida, exactly what vegetables will you be eating in the winter. Florida won’t ship to you and I don’t know that Texas will let your shipments from Mexico through. Hmmmmm What are you going to do with Intel and MicroSoft if you don’t have Dell or Compaq? Gotta have that hardware to run the software ya know. I could go on and on and all in good fun. The great thing about the United States of America is that you can always vote with your feet. If you don’t like it in one state, you can always move to another (kinda explains the migration into those red states huh?)

  9. Angelina Fox says:

    By now, Lamberti’s lead in the polls should be ZERO. Did he think he would get away with a video that featured some cheap hooker to slander Scott Israel and his family? It was cheap and tawdry and screamed FAKE! This is only more proof that Lamberti is not fit to be Broward Sheriff. And Good for Susan Israel! See how she fights back: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=il1weciiIKo

  10. anonymous says:

    Just wanted to say, Chaz, you rock. And I love your column about everyone’s favorite (NOT) scum-blogger. Buddy, I hope you don’t mind me leaving a link.
    http://www.myactsofsedition.com/instamaos/hair-of-his-chiny-chin-chins/

  11. City Activist Robert walsh says:

    Again be careful people in line down there. Overpaid, (over 90grand per yr-unreal)Top cop for Brenda snipes Fred Bellis may indeed eat you. Mr.Bellis doesn’t like that comment. To bad, don’t call me and state certain documnets don’t exist-i know i’m a liar, to a month later guess what you did have such ,certain documentations. so Bellis get s to call me a liar, but is offended when i call him out for his weight -To bad. Then my lawyer who, I am paying not Bellis, thinks its just terrible, lik e i’m the Charles manson of Ft/lau. Let Bellis pay you, bubba, cause i stopped paymnet on the check. Let mr.bellis pay your morgage. Next time Mr.bellis keep your mouth shut and do your job and leave your personal opinions,feelins etc, @ home. He had no right to chastise me like that. You pay the lawyer and to my former lawyer since you ar e so offended -my money is offfensive to so we will recify the situation-you will get zero, zlinch, zip. Anymore messages Mr.bellis that you want to get back to me. Lastly Mr.Lawyer , sue me etc., I’ll go to the bar, so everyone in town will see that you take your clients for granted. You get nothing,get it-nothing…….Thank Freedy here.Get th e money from him, since you ar e both sooo offended. Enough of both of them.

  12. ExCompassionate Conservative says:

    Buddy,

    Can you interview the consultant who told the GOP:

    “Hey, I got a great idea! The old and angry white person demographic is shrinking and passing away yearly. How about we F the Negroes by taking away early voting , especially the Sunday before the election and make lines real , real long . Our attacks on Obama as a boy, child, foodstamp and welfare king, having his wife as a ho and not being like us can’t possibly give those Negroes something to talk about while waiting in line for 4 hours. There is no way some one like Al Sharpton or the NAACP or SLC or some other Negro based gang is going to get angry about that. We got Allen West and Herman Cain to take care of that. The Blacks have short term memories so we can run ads with Abe Lincoln to win em back.”

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