Update: Poll Shows Frankel With 10 Pt. Lead

BY BUDDY NEVINS

A new poll released Wednesday showed Democratic Lois Frankel with a 10 point lead over Republican Adam Hasner in the key House District 22 race.

In it, Frankel is leading Hasner by 49 to 39 percent.

One caveat: The poll was done by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The DCCC said the poll was done Oct. 10 and involved 450 likely voters. It has a margin of error plus or minus 4.6 percent.

The latest poll is dramatically different than a poll competed just five days earlier on Oct. 5 of 407 likely voters by St. Pete Polls.  That one had Hasner with 44.6 percent to Frankel’s 44.3 percent.  The margin of error was 4.9 percent plus or minus.

The two met in a debate at the Palm Beach Post today, which can be found here.

Here is an earlier story:

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Democrats are worried, very worried.

The supposed Democratic-leaning U. S. House District 22 is looking more and more like a possible loss.

U. S. House District 22, which stretches from northern Palm Beach County to Central mostly east Broward County, leans Democratic.

A poll earlier this month indicated the race is neck-and-neck between candidates Lois Frankel, the Democrat, and Adam Hasner, the Republican.

That might be okay if  Frankel was swimming in money.  However, Hasner has twice the cash in the bank  – roughly $680,000 to $381,000.

And Frankel has proved to be an unexciting, if not boring campaigner, complain fellow Democrats.

She also apparently has a long line of political foes from her decades in the Florida House and as mayor of West Palm Beach.

“She’s a disaster,” a well-known Broward Democrat said. “She should be doing a lot better.”

Hasner has been flooding the district with mailed advertising aimed at the independent that could make a difference.  One independent told Browardbeat.com that he estimates he received a dozen pieces from Hasner.

This same independent – a likely voter who has never missed an election – has received no mail from Frankel.

Democrats are complaining that Hasner has been hiding his past as a ultra-conservative supporter of Tea Party-like positions.

Whatever Hasner’s past, Frankel’s was much better known in Palm Beach County at the beginning of this race.  She has been embroiled in political infighting in that county for years and those on the losing end of these battles remember her role.

“She has brought a lot of baggage into this race,” another Democrat said.

The question is whether she can win despite the baggage.

 



9 Responses to “Update: Poll Shows Frankel With 10 Pt. Lead”

  1. creekgirl says:

    Kristin Jacobs would have been a way better candidate than Lois. The HDICs couldn’t see the big picture.Too bad the Dems thought that the first Democrat in the House 22 race counted more than the electablity of the candidate in that particular district.

  2. Floridan says:

    I agree with creekgirl 100 percent, but it’s too bad Kristin didn’t enter the race earlier. I think that waiting until Allen West moved to another district made her look a little too opportunistic and it put her way behind Frankel in raising cash and securing support.

  3. Independent says:

    Kristen would have lost.

    Lois will win though it will be close.

    I actually like Adam as somewhat of a moderate but will compromise his views to get ahead like other moderate Republicans to survive in his own party.

    I don’t live in the district and I’m an independent. I have nothing to win or lose in this fight. All I have is an objective view of the district and how they vote.

  4. Paul Gougelman says:

    Personally, I have had enough of members of Congress from Palm Beahc County. Ron Klein was supposed to our savior. Instead he was never in Broward, and you could never get his office to even acknowledge a letter on an issue. Allen West has shown himeself to be little more than a Palm Beach Countyite in disguise by moving North and abandoning Broward, because it is too “Democratic.” Now, we have Miss Frankel who couldn’t even get re-elected as West Palm Mayor. Has she even come to Broward to campaign? Does she even know where Broward is? Get ready for Congressman Hasner, also from Palm Beach County. How wonderful.

  5. Heavy D says:

    Not quite sure I understand how it is a loss of a house seat as described in the headline when Republicans now hold it.
    Its all about the turnout.

  6. taxpayer says:

    Neither Jacobs nor Frankel would make a difference. Had the last 4 years been good economically for S. FL then maybe dems would have a chance. There is a general dissatisfaction with government at all levels because property owners/taxpayers realize that we have a spending problem, not a revenue problem, and the elected city, county, state and federal politicians are the problem. sadly some good ones get lumped in with the bad. add to that the distrust or disinterest, and you can predict the results on Nov. 6. If Frankel’s record was sterling from all her years in office, she may have had a chance.
    And to those that are skeptical of the spending problem, why are all the local and county elected officials against amendment 4? they fear the loss of revenue for their pet projects and out of control spending, regardless of it stimulating the lcoal economy and getting homes sold and occupied once it passes (but wait till after Jan. 1, 2013 to buy)

  7. Ron Gunzburger says:

    Thanks, Buddy, for this story. It prompted me to contribute again yesterday to the Frankel campaign.

  8. Floridan says:

    I’m a taxpayer, too, and Amendment 4 is a badly flawed proposal that will cripple local governments.

    You can be skeptical of government spending, but most municipalities see the bulk of their budgets go for such services as police and fire protection (about 50% of expenditures in the city I live in), public works and utilities (a little less than 25%) and capital projects.

    Moreover, since some city servicves tend to be funded by designated sources such as user fees and grants, a reduction in ad valorem taxes has a disproportionate effect on those that don’t (such as police and fire services).

    Finally, this is a typical “one size fits all” solution to a very complicated problem. Legislators have the luxury of proposing these amendments and then walking away leaving local elected officials to deal with the deal with the results.

  9. taxpayer says:

    To Floridian –

    “You can be skeptical of government spending, but most municipalities see the bulk of their budgets go for such services as police and fire protection (about 50% of expenditures in the city I live in)”……

    did you mean salaries, benefits and pensions costs, i.e. services?
    Every property residential and non pays a fire assessment fee. 911 dispatch will have a separate line item starting 2013-14 for the most basic of policing – “Dispatch”. If your city spends 50% of ad valorem tax collections on police and fire, your city has a spending problem. (Sounds like you live in Ft Lauderdale)
    And I’ll bet you don’t live in Lauderdale Lakes.
    When labor costs are that disproportional, they are unsustainable without an ever increasing and/or appreciating tax base. Elected officials continued allegiance to city employees and NOT their constituents defies logic. When in reality the most basic infrastructure – water, sewer, storm water should be repaired, maintained and replaced on an ongoing basis.
    This 2012 Amendment 4 is not getting the huge support as “Vote No for Amendment 4″ did in 2008, but then defeating 4 in 2008 was supposed to save the economy and create jobs.
    Yeah, it sure did.

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