In recent polls in Broward County, I’ve found an increasing number of Democratic voters who have decided Charlie Crist isn’t such a bad guy after all. I’m not talking about your average Democratic voter who is capable to defect to the other side given the right candidate and issue. I’m talking about hard-core Democrats who would sooner vote for Osama Bin Laden than a Republican.

No better example of this can be seen in the latest BrowardBeat.Com survey of  Broward District 6 Democratic Primary voters. Only the most dedicated Democrats were surveyed — 403 registered Democrats who had voted in at least one of the last two county primaries.

The first survey question is what pollsters call an engagement question. It’s meant to be an easy and interesting question on a well-known politician that allows the voter to give a “top of the head” answer. Once they give a response to this question, there is high probability the voter will continue with the rest of the survey. We often use a presidential or gubernatorial job approval question for this purpose.

In this District 6 survey of likely Democratic primary voters, we used the gubernatorial job rating of Charlie Crist as our lead question. 

We used the same question in our survey conducted two years ago, so we have a good comparison of how hard-core Democratic voters felt about his performance in two different time periods.

One poll conducted while he was a Republican Governor and the other as an independent candidate running for the U.S. Senate. In Table 1, we can see how his popularity has grown among Democratic Primary voters.

                                                Table 1                                              

Amazingly, his strong approval numbers have increased from 11% to a whopping 29% – an 18 point difference.

In this highly Democratic district Crist has a 67% job approval rating (combining both Strongly and Somewhat Approve)!

Compare that rating with Mason-Dixon’s (August 13, 2010) latest statewide survey of all voters showing Crist with a job approval rating of only 44%.

So what’s going on here? Why are so many hard-core Democrats seeing Charlie in a new light?

First of all, he has dropped his Republican moniker and is running for the U.S. Senate as an NPA. Democrats see this move as sticking it to the Republican Party and they like it.

Secondly, his vetoes of the legislature’s school reform bill and the controversial abortion bill was regarded as widely popular with Democrats in South Florida. All of a sudden Crist has become the champion of progressive politics.

And how will all this play out in November?

Clearly, Crist’s new found popularity is a death-knell for Kendrick Meek, if he wins the Democratic Primary on Tuesday. To win in Florida as a Democrat you need to carry most of the Democratic voters and hope for a majority of Independents. Republican’s rarely defect from their party’s nominee and I don’t see that changing in this election cycle.

If Jeff Greene wins, it will increase Crist’s chances for victory because most of the Democratic establishment will abandon Greene and probably cut a backroom deal with Crist to entice him into the Democratic caucus.

 *****

BY BUDDY NEVINS

Hidden in an earlier Jim Kane poll of  heavily Democratic Sunrise is more good news for Charlie Crist.

Of the 402 answering the telephone survey, 67.41 percent had a favorable opinion of Crist and 53.23 percent throught he was doing a good job.

His unfavorable rating was low for a governor in these turbulent times – 24.13 percent.  Kane said the majority of  the unfavorable votes were cast by Republicans.

The poll was taken July 30-Aug. 1 and surveyed only likely voters with a strong history of voting in Sunrise elections.

The Sunrise results are significant because it is the heart of Democratic Broward. 

Just over 67 percent of those polled self-identified themselves as Democrats.  Republicans comprised 17.91 percent of those surveyed and independents 10.95 percent.

About half of Sunrise’s likely voters live in condominiums.  Just under one third are Jewish and a fourth are Catholic.  Whites comprise 77.36 percent of them, while Hispanics are only 7.46 percent of the likely voters and blacks 6.72 percent.

Democrats like Charlie Crist.  That’s no surprise given the poor quality of the Democratic field for U. S. Senate.

I was at a party of largely liberal, Democrats over the weekend.   Because of my history as a political columnist, the upcoming election became a topic of conversation several times.  Every single one of these liberal Democrats said they were voting for Crist in November, with several saying they had never voted for him before.

This is, of course, anecdotal.

Given the Sunrise results, it looks like Crist is moving in the right direction 

*****

Jim Kane is one of South Florida’s premier pollsters and political strategists, appearing regularly on national television and in the national print media. He currently teaches graduate seminars at the University of Florida in survey research, political behavior, political campaigning and political parties and interest groups. He has written numerous papers on politics for publications such as Political Research Quarterly and won an American Political Science Association Award in 2004 for the best paper in the state and local elections section. Kane was the first Democratic pollster to work for the Republican Party of Florida.

Most political observers would agree the District 6 County Commission race has developed into the most talked about and, of course, the most negative campaign in Broward County’s political history. This epic battle began over two years ago when Steve Geller announced his intention to challenge Sue Gunzburger in her reelection bid for County Commissioner.

Since then, both candidates have raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for a district that has only 8000 likely Democratic Primary voters. Both candidates began TV and direct mail attack ads as early as May of this year, some four months prior to the election.  And both candidates have made this election personal.

Back in July, 2008, the BrowardBeat.Com published our poll setting the base-line for this race which showed both candidates very popular, but with Steve Geller having far more “very favorable” ratings than Sue Gunzburger. When placed in a “head to head” match-up, Geller had a 14% lead at the time, making him the early front runner. We  noted then that this poll was done absent of any campaigning and only reflected the current popularity of both candidates.

But after the mud bath both have taken in the past four months, it appears that Sue has taken a significant lead going into the final week — 51-30 percent with 19 percent undecided.

In Table 1, we show a comparison of our two surveys, one taken in July, 2008, and, the most recent poll completed from August 14 to August 16, 2010, of 403 likely Democratic Primary voters (see Methodology below).

                                                            Table 1

As the table shows, Geller has gone from a 14-point lead to a 21 point deficit, a net loss of 35 points in two years. How did this happen? First, let’s start with the premise that vote choice is determined by a voter’s “impression” of both candidates, realizing that no contested election is done in a vacuum. Our instrument for voters’ impressions is the common favorability rating used in most common political polls. This question determines “name recognition” and how positive or negative a voter feels about the challenging candidates.

In table 2, we display the changes in favorability ratings for Sue Gunzburger that have occurred over the last two years.

                                                Table 2

The table clearly shows how Sue’s numbers have overall improved. Her name recognition has jumped from 69% (true name recognition 59%) to 92% (true name recognition 78%), and her total “very favorable” responses increased from 17% to 29%. Her total negative responses have increased as well, but compared to Geller’s negatives and the negativity of the two campaigns, they seem relatively low. Now look at Table 3 and see how the campaign has influenced voters’ impression of Steve Geller.

                                                Table 3

Unlike Gunzburger’s rating, Geller’s positive responses have significantly declined. His “very favorable” responses fell 8% to 14%, and, his “mostly favorable” rating fell 9% to 24%, a total decline in positive responses of 17%.

While Geller’s positives fell dramatically, his total negatives jumped an amazing 31%, from 8% to 39%!  

The only good news for Geller in these numbers is that his name recognition increased from 77% (true name recognition 63%) to 91% (true name recognition 77%).

So how did all this happen? Well the data doesn’t give us that answer, but we have to conclude that the attack ads of Sue Gunzburger resonated far better with voters than the ads produced by Steve Geller.

In addition, Sue Gunzburger deftly used the environment of ethics reform to her benefit. In a political year when being an incumbent should be a negative, she turned it into a positive.

Her railing against lobbyists and even her own colleagues on the commission, accusing them of trying to undermine ethics reform, morphed her from an insider to an outsider being persecuted by special interests.

And Sheriff Al Lamberti’s awkward investigation into Gunzburger’s  late husband’s sale of  recycled outdoor furniture to the county –she was quickly cleared of any wrongdoing —  only contributed to this perception.

Finally, let’s be clear that any survey is snap shot in time and that the real battle begins with the grassroots campaign. Geller does have strong support from unions who will undoubtedly be in force on Election Day. And even though this survey would suggest Steve Geller has a steep hill to climb before the asphalt runs out, anything can still happen. After all, this is Geller versus Gunzburger isn’t it?

METHODOLOGY

From August 14 through August 16, 2010, telephone interviews with 403 registered Broward County Democrats living in County Commission District 6 were conducted.  The survey sample was obtained from a list of registered Democratic voters who had a history of voting in one of the last two county primary elections. Respondents were randomly selected from this list and qualified as to residency and that they were currently registered to vote at their current address.

The confidence level for the survey is 95% with a margin of error or +/- 4.9 % (this margin of error varies slightly on each proportional type question depending on the amount of difference between proportions.) This means that in 19 out of 20 surveys of this kind, the results would be within the defined margin of error. In addition to sampling error, other sources of error due to question wording, question order, and other difficulties of in measurement can bias the results of all surveys.

*****

Jim Kane is one of South Florida’s premier pollsters and political strategists, appearing regularly on national television and in the national print media. He currently teaches graduate seminars at the University of Florida in survey research, political behavior, political campaigning and political parties and interest groups. He has written numerous papers on politics for publications such as Political Research Quarterly and won an American Political Science Association Award in 2004 for the best paper in the state and local elections section. Kane was the first Democratic pollster to work for the Republican Party of Florida.

Sunrise Mayor Roger Wishner is winning the mayor’s race, according to a new poll by the Florida Voter.

Wishner is ahead of his opponent Mike Ryan by a comfortable 37 to 29 percent.  There is 31 percent undecided and more who didn’t answer the question, so the race could still go either way.

There are two other clues favorable to Wishner in the survey by Browardbeat.com’s pollster Jim Kane of 402 voters conducted by phone July 30-August 1:

*When asked if they approved or disapproved of the job the Sunrise City Commission was doing, 53 percent of voters approved and 26 percent disapproved.  Voters believe incumbents like Wishner are doing a good job.  

*Over 41 percent of those surveyed have a favorable opinion of Wishner, while 24 percent have an unfavorable opinion.  About 25 percent have no opinion.

Ryan does have an opening.  Over 55 percent of voters never heard of him.

That gives Ryan an opportunity to reach those voters with a favorable message.  Less than 5 percent of voters surveyed have an unfavorable opinion of him.

The mayor’s election is Aug. 24.

The survey was done only in Sunrise, but it still should vitally interest State Attorney Mike Satz.

After 36 years in office, the survey* found:

• Only about 25 percent of Sunrise voters thought Satz was doing a good job.  
• A little over 8 percent said he wasn’t.
• A whopping 64 percent of the Sunrise voters don’t have an opinion on whether Satz is doing a good job.
• The rest refused to answer.

The key number is how many voters don’t have an opinion on whether Satz is doing a good job.

It means that 64 percent of the public in Sunrise have no opinion about Satz, even after all his years in office. There is no reason the results would not be similar in other parts of Broward.

Given these results, the public’s opinion of Satz is a blank slate.  A credible opponent has an opportunity.

An opponent could use the next two years to shape the public’s opinion of Satz. As a loser.  As a do-nothing.

Of course, Satz also has two more years until his re-election in 2012.

Two more years to step up his own media operation.  Two more years to burnish his image.  Two more years to make the name Satz synonymous with crime fighting.

Satz’s flack Ron Ishoy needs to start trumpeting his boss’s triumphs regularly and repeatedly.  Ishoy needs to push Satz out in front of the TV cameras.

The template is Katherine Fernandez Rundle, the Miami-Dade State Attorney. 

I saw Rundle do several minutes on the WPLG Channel 10 News last week talking about gang violence in Miami and what she is doing about it. When is the last time you saw Satz on TV?

Just look at the difference in the two prosecutors’ websites.

This is Rundle’s.  Here is Satz’s.

Rundle’s site is filled with information on how the prosecutor’s office can help the public.  She’s on Twitter.

Satz’s site looks like it was put together in the 1990s when twitter was only something a bird did.

This survey should be a wake up call for Satz.

He needs to start getting more visible now.  Or else somebody else will be sitting in the prosecutor’s office in two years.

(*The survey was done by Browardbeat.com’s pollster Jim Kane. It was a survey of 402 voters conducted by phone between July 30-August 1. )

A huge number of Florida voters remain undecided or might change their minds before the upcoming statewide primaries for U. S. Senate and governor, according to the Quinnipiac poll released today.

The race for the Republican governor and the Democratic U. S. Senate nominations are still wide open.

Attention Steve Geller and Sue Gunzburger:

The surge of two political neophytes with deep pockets – Rick Scott and Jeff Greene—show that television advertising continues to be able to move numbers in a political campaign.

So Geller and Gunzburger, who have been pouring money into cable television ads for the South Broward County Commission district race, is using their cash wisely.

Both statewide candidates also have been funneling buckets of bucks into their respective efforts. 

I recently traveled to two other television markets in Florida – Orlando and Jacksonville – and couldn’t get away from Scott and Greene ads on TV.

The two statewide candidates have also been busy mailing voters.  

Greene mailed a booklet to my house that cost more than $1 apiece, local political experts estimated. 

Attention Rick Scott:   You are getting ripped off by your consultants.  You sent three mail pieces to a home I own, although no one is registered to vote at that address in the Republican primary.

The poll results also indicates to me that voters are unexcited by the boring establishment candidacies of Bill McColum, Republican for governor, and Kendrick Meek, the Democratic congressman running for U. S. Senate.

Here is Quinnipiac poll’s news release, with my underlining:

RELEASE: JUNE 10, 2010

SCOTT TOPS McCOLLUM IN FLORIDA GOP GOV RACE,

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;

DEM SENATE PRIMARY RACE TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Political neophyte Rick Scott has surged to a 44 – 31 percent lead over Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum in the race for the Republican nomination for governor, apparently powered by a multi-million dollar television ad blitz to introduce him to voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In the contest for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination, Jeff Greene, another political unknown with deep pockets, is following a similar approach of large TV ad spending to move into a statistical dead heat with Kendrick Meek, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds: Meek gets 29 percent to Greene’s 27 percent with former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre at 3 percent. 

The biggest number, 37 percent, are undecided.

The winner of the Democratic Senate nomination will face Gov. Charlie Crist, running as an independent, and Republican Marco Rubio in November.  The winner of the GOP nomination for governor will face Democrat Alex Sink and independent Bud Chiles in the general election.

Although six in 10 voters in both contests say they could still change their minds before the August 24 primary, the results in both races show just how potentially powerful the combination of money and an anti-establishment candidacy can be this election year.

“Mothers may tell their children that money can’t buy happiness, but what these results show is that money can buy enough television ads to make political neophytes serious contenders for major political office,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “It certainly doesn’t hurt with Greene or Scott that this is shaping up to be the year of the anti-establishment candidate.”  

“Around the country, challengers to so-called career politicians seem to be doing well, and these showings by Scott and Greene certainly fit very well into that trend,” Brown added.

Scott, a former health care executive, began running television commercials this spring when McCollum held a huge lead over State Sen. Paula Dockery, his only challenger for the GOP nomination for governor. But she dropped out of the race once the size of Scott’s financial resources and willingness to spend became apparent.

“In addition to being a testament to the power of television, Scott’s ability to take the lead so quickly is also a reflection on McCollum’s lack of strong support within his own party despite his two decades in Florida politics,” said Brown.

Scott is viewed favorably by 40 percent of Republicans; unfavorably by 12 percent and 46 percent say they don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.  McCollum, in his third statewide race and having spent a decade in Congress, is viewed favorably by 41 percent; unfavorably by 19 percent and 36 percent don’t have an opinion.

Many of Scott’s television ads have been devoted to his support for an immigration law similar to Arizona’s.

In a separate survey of 1,133 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent,  Republicans approve of the Arizona immigration law 86 – 7 percent and want a similar statute in Florida 84 – 10 percent.

In the Democratic Senate primary, Greene is almost as well known as Meek, a four-term congressman from South Florida.  Asked to rate him, 23 percent of Democrats view Greene favorably, 10 percent unfavorably and 64 percent don’t know enough about him to have an opinion.   Meek, by comparison, is viewed favorably by 29 percent; unfavorably by 8 percent and 59 percent don’t have an opinion.

From June 2 – 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 814 Republican likely primary voters  with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points and 785 Democratic likely primary voters  with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. 

With the Barack Obama campaign poised for a big win in Broward County, most political observers have assumed that The Democratic ticket’s coattails could sweep Scott Israel into the Sheriff’s office, even though he pales in comparison to Sheriff Al Lamberti in both name recognition and campaign cash.

This is not a new phenomenon in American politics. “Coattail effects” usually occur in elections that are classified as electoral landslides.

But the coattail effects may not be helping Israel as much as he would hope, a new exclusive poll found this week.

Coattails have affected Broward politics in the past.  Even Republican coattails.

In 1980, for instance, many Broward Democrats were caught by surprise by the surge of Republican sentiment in a county usually considered safe for Democrats. Then County Commissioner Howard Forman was almost defeated by an unknown Republican challenger in what turned out to be a landslide election for Ronald Reagan. 
 
In addition, the county has also experienced a surge of new registered voters in the past year, most of whom have chosen Democrat as their party. Consequently, such opinions about the power of Obama’s coattails to derail Lamberti first election are not without foundation.

 
I have been hesitant to make such a conclusion concerning the Sheriff’s race because of its importance to the Broward electorate.

The Sheriff’s office is the most visible political institution on Broward. Without a county-wide strong mayor, the Sheriff has become the titular head of the Broward’s political establishment.
 
In a survey of 402 likely voters (sampling error +/-4.9%)  conducted October 26-28 , including newly registered voters who indicate their intention to vote in the presidential election, we attempted to see if there are any significant signs that the Democrats will choose a lesser known candidate based on party alone.
 
First, we look at how Obama is fairing in his contest against John McCain. A large lead here could bode well for any Democrat running county wide.

 
In the head to head match-up, we found the Obama/Biden team leading the McCain/Palin team 64% to 31%, with 6% undecided. This would suggest that Obama could reach the high sixty-percent mark. That kind of lead could indicate that a Democrat on the county-wide ballot would also benefit.

Surprisingly, this lead does not seem to be helping Israel.

Even though Obama has a 33 percent lead, Al Lamberti has over a 10 point advantage over Scott Israel, with less than a week to go.

 
Our survey shows that Lamberti has 46% to Israel’s 36%, with 18% still undecided.

There maybe several reasons for this double-digit lead. First, Lamberti’s cash advantage has enabled him to advertise on network television, including attack ads. This apparently allowed him to establish his own credibility while creating some negativity toward Israel. 
 
What we found in the survey is what little difference there is in “true name recognition” between the two sheriff’s candidates.

 
Lamberti was known by  58 percent of those answering the survey, while Israel was known by 49 percent.

Considering that Lamberti has held office for a year and has had the ability to gain media attention before the campaign, this is somewhat surprising.

 
But it also points out the attention that voters are paying to this office. But whatever reason, only 8 point difference in true name recognition does not give Lamberti much of an advantage.
 
What does make a significant difference are the unfavorable ratings Israel has accumulated.

Israel has a total of 23% in unfavorable ratings, compared to Lamberti’s 13%. Some of these negatives for Israel, of course, are due to his tough fight in the Democratic Primary. Certainly, it also reflects the attack advertising Lambderti has thrown at him.
 
 
 
Now we can look at how the presidential race is effecting the Sheriff’s campaign.
 
 
Some 53% of the Obama vote is also choosing Israel. But he is also losing 27% of Obama voters to Lamberti.

Contrast that with the McCain vote: Lamberti swamps his challenger with over 81% of McCain supporters.

 
Admittedly, there are far more Democrats in the county, but the defection of so many Democrats is dragging Israel’s campaign down.

Finally, I looked at the “new voter” and their choice for Sheriff. Here, as you would expect, Israel does has his best chance at winning the election on Tuesday.

By over a two to one margin, Israel wins this potentially important group. If there is a coattail effect in this race, it is certainly in this sector of the electorate. 

If new voters show up in overwhelming numbers, it could make this race close.
 

On Tuesday, we will all find out together.

BY BUDDY NEVINS

It’s over!

The faltering economy has pushed U. S. Sen. Barack Obama into a significant lead in Florida and that will make him the next president

Economic woes are convincing even some bigots to hold their noses and vote for Obama.

Those are the findings of a statewide USAPoll run by Jim Kane, the Browardbeat.com pollster, this week.
 

The USAPoll findings are:

 *49 percent for Obama
  
*43 percent for U. S. Sen. John McCain.

*8 percent undecided

“Without some catastrophic change of opinion, the race for the presidency is over,” says Kane. “This is going to be a landslide. 

“Unless John McCain goes to Pakistan and personally drags Osama bin Laden out of a cave, there is virtually no way for him to win Florida and thus the nation.”

Political scientists widely assume that the Republican ticket can not win the presidency without a victory in Florida.

Unlike previous surveys over the years which found bias among voters against black and Jewish candidates, this poll found bias wasn’t preventing votes for Obama.

Since voters answering polls are likely to lie about their prejudices, the survey used a technique which disguised the questions about bias.  Developed by Kane and a University of Florida political scientist Ken Wald, the list of questions has proved mathematically accurate in the past.

The formula uncovers how many white voters are mad about a minority candidate running for office. The method has been reviewed and published in a scientific journal. 

“We know from previous surveys that there is bias among Florida voters,” Kane says. “We found this time that it made no difference if the candidate was black.”

“The economy’s problems have overshadowed any bias the white voters may have in the past.”

Kane predicts that the attack ads on Obama by McCain will have no effect on the campaign.

“Hillary used the same attacks and it didn’t work. I’ve got four words for McCain to understand: Economy, economy, economy stupid,” he says.

Just over 52 percent of those answering the survey named the economy as the number one problem facing the nation. 

A majority – 51 percent – said Obama was better equipped to handle the economy.  Only 39 percent named McCain as better on the economy. 

Around 12 percent named the Iraq War as the most important issue.

The USAPoll used individuals to question 839 likely voters statewide.  The survey identified experienced likely voters from their past voting record.  It identified newly registered likely voters from a questionnaire about their interest in the race.

The margin of error is 3.4 percent points, plus or minus.

The poll mirrors a statewide survey done for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and The Florida Times-Union released today.  The newspaper poll found Obama at 49 percent, McCain at 44 percent and 7 percent undecided.

The survey for the newspapers telephoned 600 likely voters.  It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Why don’t more people know Public Defender Howard “Help Me Howard” Finkelstein?
That’s the question that stumps pollster Jim Kane and me after seeing the results of our USAPOLL exclusively done for Browardbeat.com.
Finkelstein’s name recognition was surprisingly low.
How is that possible since Finkelstein has spent four years as public defender and a decade as the legal advisor on WSVN-Channel 7 News’ regular feature “Help Me Howard?”
“They apparently aren’t connecting Finkelstein the politician with Finkelstein the television personality,” Kane theorizes.
Here are the numbers:
Over 42 percent of likely Democratic voters have no idea who Finkelstein is.
Yet state Sen. Steve Geller is a mystery to only 23 percent. And County Commissioners Sue Gunzburger is unknown to 34 percent – 8 percent better name recognition than television star Finkelstein.
As the King sings in the Broadway musical “The King and I”: “It’s….a puzzlement.”
The poll surveyed 401 Democratic voters July 16 in Gunzburger’s Hollywood-based commission district.  There is no reason that this district would have views different from the rest of Broward.
Do our findings mean “Help Me Howard” is in trouble?  Probably not.
More than 99 percent probably never heard of Finkelstein’s primary opponent, Alex Arreaza.  But we only polled Finkelstein’s name recognition.
Kane says he wants to poll Finkelstein’s recognition in more depth exclusively for Browardbeat.com before the election season is over.

(Full disclosure:  My wife, Fran Nevins, gave $100 to Finkelstein’s campaign.)

State Senator Steve Geller, who is termed limited this year, has recently announced his intention to challenge fellow Democrat County Commissioner Suzanne Gunzberger for her District 6 Commission seat and has already opened up a campaign account. Challenging a fellow Democrat is highly unusual in Broward unless that Democrat is politically wounded (like Ilene Lieberman’s 1996 challenge of long-time Commissioner Jerry Thompson).

Certainly that is not the case with Suzanne Gunzberger  On the other hand, she hasn’t faced any serious challenge for the seat since she won against Don Samuels in 1992, when the race was countywide. At least on the surface, she would appear to be a formidable candidate to unseat.

But Steve Geller is no ordinary challenger. A former state legislator and now a state senator, Steve Geller is one the most politically powerful and influential Democrats in state government. His name has appeared in both the local and state-wide media on almost a weekly basis. In contrast to Sue Gunzberger, however, Steve has had his share of criticism from the press for lobbying for clients before local governments. This issue will undoubtedly find its way into the campaign as we get nearer to the primary.

We thought that for our first survey it would be fun to look at the Geller versus Gunzburger race to see if either candidate has, at this early date at least, any advantages going into the race. So we conducted a poll of 401 likely Democratic primary voters in this district (see Methodology below) to find out.

THE HORSE RACE
In Chart 1 (click to enlarge all charts), we find that Steve Geller has a healthy lead over Sue Gunzberger – if the election were held today. His 14-point lead is somewhat surprising since Sue has spent the past 16 years on the County Commission, eight of which was representing this district. And that doesn’t include her time on the Hollywood City Commission.

As political pollsters know, early trial ballot numbers are often based on name recognition, and, incumbents usually have far more of it. That shouldn’t be the case in this race, where both candidates should be fairly well-known with likely voters. This is assumption is confirmed as shown in Charts 2 and 3, were both candidates have significant name recognition with likely voters.
Only 23% have never heard of Geller and nearly 31% have no clue who Sue Gunzberger is. (Most pollsters would also include the “Never heard of/Can’t rate” percentage in the total; Consequently, Geller would have a “true name recognition” of 64% while Gunzberger’s “true name recognition” is around 58%.) Since Geller has a lead of 14 points in the trial ballot question, name recognition differences can’t be the sole reason for his superior numbers.

Looking at the same two Charts again, we can see that Geller also has an advantage in the “very favorable” category of about six percent. In addition, cross tabular analysis reveals that Geller retains 73% of his “very favorable” voters, while Gunzberger only holds on to 52% of hers (statistically significant at the <.001 level). What this means is that while both candidates have very high favorable numbers, Geller’s favorables are far more intense.

Geller and Gunzburger

ISSUES
A lot of media attention over the past several months has focused on rising property taxes. But recent cut backs in funding public education have drawn some increasing criticism, especially among Democrats. In Chart 4, we display what Democratic voters in this district consider the most important issue facing the County today.

Public education receives a plurality of voters’ concerns, but is closely followed by the economy and jobs and property taxes. Statistically speaking, all three issues are at the top of the list. As noted above, increasing media stories about cuts in public education has had some effect on voters’ choice for what’s important to Broward County. This is somewhat in conflict with voters’ concerns over rising property taxes. This paradox demonstrates what public officials will face over the next few years: cries for increased funding for public services while calling for lower taxes. How all this sorts itself out, only time will tell. Perhaps an improved economy and decreasing home values will mitigate concerns over taxes.

THE UNFRIENDLY SKIES
Finally, the expansion of Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport’s south runway has dominated much of the County Commission’s discussions over the past two years. Sue Gunzberger, whose District 6 includes parts of Hollywood closest to the airport, has been a stalwart opponent to the expansion. Countywide surveys we have conducted over the past two years have shown that most voters support the expansion,  but then most of them do not live on the airport’s borders.

Since this has been a major issue for Sue Gunzberger, we asked voters in her district if they thought the expansion was either a good or a bad idea. As we show in Chart 5, about 45% of likely voters in the District say the expansion is either a very good idea or a good idea, as opposed to approximately 22% who tell us that it is either a bad or very bad idea.
Interestingly, 32% don’t know or are not sure.

Being opposed to an issue can sometimes carry more emotional weight for a voter than for those who support it. Take gun control for example. Survey after survey has shown that overwhelming majorities support some form of gun control. But the NRA has consistently mobilized its base to defeat most gun control measures. Why? Because their membership is far more emotionally attached to the issue, and, consequently, more likely to contact their state legislator to express their opposition and ultimately vote on this single issue alone.

If this is the case on the airport runway expansion, we should find voters opposed to it far more likely to support Sue Gunzberger. Looking at Table 1 we don’t find that to be the case. In fact, Geller actually expands his lead among those voters who find the runway expansion a “very bad idea” (statistically significant at <.001 level). In other words, Sue Gunzberger’s opposition to the runway expansion has not helped her at all, at least not against a candidate like Steve Geller.

Just a caveat about this survey and analysis: it should be understood that campaigns do matter. That variable is certainly missing here and we must remember that if this match-up ever occurs it will be two years from now. In politics, this is more than several lifetimes from now. Steve Geller must also contend with an eroding name recognition that could eat into his current popularity.

What it does show, however, is that Steve Geller goes into this race with a comfortable lead against a popular incumbent. It is also demonstrates that issues that seemingly would help a candidate can ultimately have little impact on an election. This is a case where the squeaky wheel gets more oil than it deserves.

METHODOLOGY
From July 16 through July 17, 2008, telephone interviews with 401 registered Broward County Democrats living in County Commission District 6 were conducted.  The survey sample was obtained from a list of registered Democratic voters who had a history of voting in one of the last two county primary elections (Broward County Supervisor of Elections Office). Respondents were randomly selected from this list and qualified as to residency and that they were currently registered to vote at their current address.

The confidence level for the survey is 95% with a margin of error or +/- 4.9 % (this margin of error varies slightly on each proportional type question depending on the amount of difference between proportions.) This means that in 19 out of 20 surveys of this kind, the results would be within the defined margin of error. In addition to sampling error, other sources of error due to question wording, question order, and other difficulties of in measurement can bias the results of all surveys.

All comparisons and measures of association between variables (or subgroups) meet our test for statistical significance, which, for the purpose of this report, will be .05 or less, unless otherwise noted.

The word significance has a very special and consistent meaning when used in this report.  It does not by itself mean the relationship noted is important.  If two or more variables are statistically significant, it simply means the variables (subgroups) are quite likely to be actually related to one another in the population under study.  Thus significance is required in order to make statistical inferences about the population, based on the sample.

Although error levels increase inversely with the size of subgroups, tests for significance always take this into consideration.  Reliance on any differences displayed by comparisons without statistical significance would be dependent solely on faith and not sound statistical proof.