The hottest story on Wall Street is that Facebook will sell its stock publically for the first time.

Based on the projected price of $45-a-share, this five-year old company will have a total market value (capitalization) of $100 billion.

Every time I read about another one of these “too-good-to-be-true “investments, I am reminded of a book that I read decades ago about the history of speculation.  The title escapes me, but the lessons do not.

In 1637, it was tulip bulbs in Holland, and then it was the South Seas Bubble, followed by futures contracts on slaves and stocks in the 1920’s. I can add to that The Dotcom Bubble in the 1990’s and real estate bubble of this past decade and a hundred other get rich quick schemes.

It always the same psychology underpinned by two beliefs: 1. I am going to kick myself if I don’t get in on this, 2. “The Other Idiot Theory” which holds that no matter what I pay for this there is some other idiot that will pay me more.

There is nothing more than mob psychology that drives this.  And one day the mob wakes up and all is lost.

The investor lemmings will do the same with Facebook and they are far more likely to get wiped out than rich.

Facing Off

Compare Facebook to General Electric and you realize the absurdity of the unbridled faith in Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook.

GE is 125-years old that has a capitalization (number of stock shares times price) of $124 billion.  It is the only surviving company from the original Dow Jones Industrials.  Last year it had over $10 billion in profits on $150 billion in sales. It makes its money in everything from NBC to jet engines to banking and a lot more.

Facebook is a one-trick-pony.  It had total revenue of $3.7 billion and estimated earnings of $1 billion. It has 3000 employees compared to GE’s 287,000

While Facebook worldwide list is growing, it is at the mercy of foreign countries that could restrict access to it with the flick of a switch. Facebook in a business where cutting edge leadership is about 24 months.

Facebook just as likely to be a fad that could go the way of its former competitor Myspace.  One thing is certain, unlike GE, it will not be around for 125 years.

Nevertheless, like the guy in Amsterdam who woke up realizing he had blown $20,000 on a tulip bulb, one-morning Wall Street investors could wake up with a financial hangover from this latest speculative collapse.

When all is said and done Zuckerberg and the guys at the top will cash out and walk away with billions.

The schnook on the street…not so much.

Note: With the assistance of my broker have successfully managed my own investments for the last forty years. I don’t own stock in any of the companies mentioned. And I certainly won’t be buying Facebook.

First, have you heard about the public school teacher who wants to run for Circuit Court Judge and hold both jobs?

Second, how about the County Court Judge that also wants to be Governor?

Third, how about the State Attorney who is also in the State Senate.

Fourth, how about the Assistant State Attorney who also is in the Florida House?

Only the fourth is true. Numbers 1, 2 and 3 are illegal.

They should all be illegal.

At the heart of our system of “checks and balances” is the tension between the Executive, Judicial and Legislative branches. It requires them to question and challenge the actions of the other two.

Allowing members of one part of government to also serve in another branch of government defeats that concept.

I like Ari Porth, D-Coral Springs.

Long before Porth went to the Florida House, he held his present job as an Assistant States Attorney.  He was and is always fair.

Nevertheless, there is something profoundly wrong with an employee of the Executive branch having a vote on the laws and budgets that govern him.  That includes public school teachers and any other government worker that wants to join the Legislature.

Assistant States Attorney Sheila Alu is also a long-time member of the always-factionalized Sunrise City Council.

In the 70’s and 80’s, long before Alu worked for State Attorney Mike Satz, that city was perpetually under a corruption cloud. Satz repeatedly initiated failed prosecutions, including arresting two different mayors.  If a member of the city council back then also been in the prosecutor’s office, it would have put a cloud over all those events.

But they are not the only ones.  Former Florida House Speaker Ray Sansom was some kind of phony $110,000-a-year professor for Northwest Florida State College when he was indicted for using his legislative position to improperly steering millions to a buddy using the school.

In 2008 Senate President Mike Haridopolos accepted $75,000 for a nine-month lecturer appointment at the University of Florida in the Political Science Department.  He taught one class and spent half the appointment period in legislative session. (Typical pay for adjuncts at a Florida college is closer to $2500 for a three credit course.)

But this was nothing new for our Senate President. From 2004 to 2008, he accepted $150,000 from Brevard Community College to write a book. The book was never published although it is now available on line for $9.95.

Let’s be clear, Sansom, Haridoplos and the schools were engaged in legalized kickback schemes. They got hired with inflated salaries with little or no work to funnel $$$$ back to the schools.  I say legalized because if they did it for private company they would go to jail.

At some point these folks don’t know whether they are wearing their legislative hat or employment hat.

All that crossdressing gets confusing.

Want to work for the government? Great!

Want to be an elected official in a State, county or local legislative body? Great!

Want to be in both? Not so great.

There are two kinds of people who say we need new laws to protect prayer in public school: idiots and liars.

It’s not clear whether Democratic Florida Senator Gary Siplin of Orlando and Republican State Rep. Charlie Van Zant of Palatka are the former or the latter.

Maybe both?

Gary Siplin, Democrat Backing School Prayer

I say this because they have proposed fixing a problem that does not exist. Further, they propose to do it in a completely unconstitutional fashion. The relevant part of their bill, HB 317, says:

Section 1. Any district school board may adopt a resolution allowing the use of an inspirational message including prayers of invocation or benediction, at secondary school commencement exercises or any other noncompulsory student assembly. The resolution must provide that:

(1) The use of a prayer of invocation or benediction is at the discretion of the student government.

(2) All prayers of invocation or benediction will be given by student volunteers.

(3) All prayers of invocation or benediction will be nonsectarian and nonproselytizing in nature.

(4) School personnel may not participate in, or otherwise influence any student in, the determination of whether to use prayers of invocation or benediction.

Let me make it simple; there is not now nor has there ever been a law prohibiting prayer in public schools.

No judge has ever enjoined students from praying in school.

Teachers, principals and school boards who have stupidly tried to block student initiated prayer have uniformly been shot down…usually by a student represented by—get this—the ACLU!

The legal principle is simple: students can pray or not pray at their own choice.  The government and that includes principals, teachers, school boards, student governments, etc., may not promote it.  They may not restrict it unless it is clearly disturbing the functioning of the school. [I suspect repeatedly Tebowing or breaking out into a chorus Jesus Be a Fence Around Me during the SAT exam are problematic.]

Student initiated prayer is not prohibited.  If the Valedictorian wants to thank Jesus, Horus or Christopher Hitchens for the 5.0 GPA, he or she is protected by “the free exercise “clause of The First Amendment.

While at UF, Tim Tebow wore bible references on his face.  As long as it was his idea he is protected.

Given an inch with prayer, government will take a mile.  It took the Supreme Court in Engle v Vitale (1962) to overturn the government written and approved prayer, known as The Regent’s Prayer, that New York required to be read in every class every day.

Now these two yahoos and their supporters want to leave religion in school up to the Student Council to select the prayer giver and the prayer.

Republican Charlie Van Zant Wants Prayer, Too

And what are the chances that a Muslim, Jew, atheist, Satanist, Wiccan, Hindu, etc. would ever get picked north of Palm Beach.

As for content, ask a hundred people to approve a “nonsectarian, non-proselytizing  ” prayer and I bet you get at least fifty different answers.  For the Christian Fundamentalists “nonsectarian non-proselytizing” means any prayer that uses Jesus’s name less than five times.

Let me also add that there no less than 25 versus in the Bible that denounce those who, like Siplin, Van Zant and Tebow, feel the need to pray in public.  They are seen by many as hypocrites and phony-baloneys.

HB 317 solves a problem that does not exist and in the course of this unneeded solution creates a thousand new problems.

The only winners will be the lawyers.

Let me think that over for a second…. Ummh, … business is a bit slow, so maybe it’s not such a bad idea after all.

Allen West Covering His Medicare Butt.

It’s been almost a whole week without getting a mailer from U. S. Rep. Allen West, R-Plantation, discussing how he is leading the charge to save Medicare.

He voted for the Ryan Plan.  It would replace the current “fee for service” system with a minuscule subsidy to find coverage in the private sector.

As a veteran and a member of Congress, West would exempt himself.

Hearing details of the Ryan plan and West’s support for it, senior voters wanted to run him out of town on a rail.  Now, he’s clearly trying to get back in step with the seniors.

I bet these mailings are restricted to geezers like me in the 65+ crowd.

The reason I am sure is because he keeps telling me that he wants to keep Medicare for me and screw the 55-year-olds and unders. I am pretty sure that younger voters are not getting these mailings.

Hello Mrs. Cleaver

Newt Gingrich is now going to spend $5 mil of gambling mogul Sheldon Adelson’s $$$$ to show that Mitt Romney’s business practices at Bain  and Company matchup with corporate raider Gordon Gecko from the movie “Wall Street”.

Gecko lined his pockets by buying up companies and throwing the workers out on the streets. His mantra was: “Greed, for the want of a better word, is good”.

Newtie is now saying that Romney is a real live Gecko who’s only job creations are in China.

Certainly Romney has the business ideals of Gecko. But instead of projecting the image of a “Geckoesque” Wall Street bully, Romney prefers to cast himself with this pseudo friendly, smarmy, sycophantic know-it-all veneer.

You know…Eddie Haskell.

Hey Scott!  The good news is that you only have 49 years left on your sentence.  With time off for good behavior, that means you will be out sometime around 2052.

I am sure Kim will be waiting for you.  She struck me as the kind of gal that will show up at the prison gate to reunite with her broke, 91-year-old husband.

What I am less certain is that Federal Judge James Cohn is going to see your two-week deposition saga as a reason to reduce your sentence.

Witnesses who co-operate with the Feds hope to get a sentence reduction under two section of the Federal Criminal Code —what are referred to as “5K” or Rule 35.  Ordinarily the concept involves an underling ratting out the bosses.

Rothstein is turning the concept on its head and fingering all those who he supposedly dragged into the schemes. Illicit intrigues that he thought up and ruled with an iron hand.

It is a seemingly endless tale of lying, cheating and stealing.  More than any one, he financially benefited from the schemes.

I will admit that this two weeks of testimony is like going past a car wreck.  You hope no one is hurt.  But if there is gore, you want to see it.

From the reduced sentence perspective, it’s Hitler hoping to get a better deal by snitching on Himmler and Goering.

It’s one thing for Sammy “The Bull” Gravano to believe he will get a reduced sentence by snitching on his Don, John Gotti.  It’s a different thing when Gotti is hoping to catch a break by ratting out all the folks who did his bidding.

I don’t see Rothstein getting anything from this canary act. In any prosecution, he would come across to a jury like John Lovitz’s SNL character Tommy “The Pathological Liar” Flanagan.

“Yeah, that’s the ticket; I did it because all the guys working for me made me do it. And did I forget to mention that I gave all the money to cancer research.”

Without independent evidence corroborating his tale of sleaze, I don’t see too many getting arrested and even fewer getting convicted.  The wealth of cross-examination material on his motives to lie would take a week to cover.

I read this latest Rothstein scheme as him proclaiming: “Judge, you know what a scumbag you thought I was?  Well, I hope you will cut me some slack after I show you that I was even a bigger scumbag than you could have ever imagined. I didn’t just corrupt and taint my law firm.  I poisoned our whole community.  Now, how about letting me out of jail early?

Lucky for Scott that federal rules prevents a judge from adding to the sentence.

  Back in the 1950’s, George Romney took over American Motors and revived a dying company.

Back then the key issue for cars was: “How big or small should the tailfins be”?  They constantly changed.

It was strictly a marketing question when Papa Romney was hawking cars. With a recession underway, Papa Romney repackaged the Nash Rambler as the “new” Rambler and billed it as compact car which would save drivers’ money. The idea worked. The Rambler became a major automotive hit.

There are no moral issues when marketing a product. It’s all about making the sale.

Mitt learned that principle of giving the public what it wants.

Flip flopping on healthcare, abortion, gay rights and guns?

What’s the big deal?  It’s no different whether you are selling cars or Presidents.

It’s all about the marketing and making the sale.

TAXES AND JOBS

The GOP mantra is that raising taxes on the top 1% of us will hurt job creation by the “job creators”.

I am not so sure that’s true.

The Democratic plan to being down the deficit includes allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire so that the top tax rate will go back to 39% from the current 36%. Hardly confiscatory, 39% was the maximum rate during the Clinton years which might have been eight of the best years the American economy has ever seen.

That rate is paltry when compared with the “Golden Years” of the 1950’s when the rate was up to 90%!!!

It defies Republican logic that the “good times rolled” when the rates were the highest. How could that be?

The answer is simple.

The rich don’t want to pay Uncle Sam taxes.

But it would be better for the economy if the tax rate did increase for the rich.  That is because they would have more incentive to shelter those higher taxes by investing it in their businesses, which would create jobs.

IS GOVERNMENT GOING TOO FAR WITH KIDS?

The Ohio equivalent of Florida’s Department of Children and Families removed an eight year old from his parents and placed him in foster care.

It’s the remedy for children “in imminent danger”.

The danger was that junior tipped the scales at 200 lbs and mom was not doing enough to control his eating.

There can be little doubt that the child was on his way to serious medical and social problems.

It is a tough call.  Should they have waited for Juvenile Diabetes to set in?

BY ELLYN BOGDANOFF and ERIK FRAZEN

The Desitnation Resort legislation we filed in October has triggered a spirited statewide debate. We have observed with intrigue and at times disappointment as tired rhetoric and clever sound bytes attempt to bury the facts relevant to this topic. So here we seek to reiterate the facts and share our vision for Florida’s future.

First, we must recognize and admit that under the nose of an “anti-gaming” legislature, both Democrat and Republican, Florida has become the 4th largest gaming state in the nation over the last 10 years. More recently, it has grown in large part through statutory loopholes and clever lawyering. There seems to be no end in sight as to the expansion and lack of strategic direction to address it.

Second, this bill is not bringing anything new to this state. “Las Vegas” style casinos are already present in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Hillsborough counties. The concept of the Destination Resort simply reforms what we have by moving from the third-tier gaming that caters exclusively to a local residents, to one that attracts non-Floridian and international tourists. Make no mistake; we would like nothing more than to eliminate all gambling in our state. As native Floridians, it is not something we believe our state needs, but our current landscape was set in motion with the lottery, long before either of us was elected.

One argument against: Why not forget Destination Resorts and simply shut down the Internet cafes and let the pari-mutuel industry die a slow death? If it were that easy it would have been done years ago. This is a challenging issue to tackle and to attempt that type of reduction is not a political reality but simply the making of a political statement. The next best thing is to harness and re-direct the type of gaming that does and will exist. This bill will be the first proposal that creates a strategic vision for gaming in Florida. We have done it in Education, Health Care, Criminal Justice, and Economic Development. The time has come to address gambling.

Without legislative approval or direction, the last few years have witnessed a proliferation of gambling locations throughout Florida. We’ve seen “internet cafes,” which are basically unregulated and untaxed slot barns open up in strip malls and grow to over 2,000 locations. A recent court ruling seems to allow slot machines in any county in this state, and the Seminole Indian casinos, which were sold a monopoly on the cheap by the state through the Compact, continue expanding. We could have taken a different path. We chose not to under the premise that if we gave the Seminoles a monopoly on the Vegas style casinos, that gambling would cease to expand in this state. Again the public was misled.

It is time to be sincere and to lead. We strongly disagree that our proposal would constitute the largest expansion of gaming in the state’s history. There are many ways to define “expansion.” Is it one more dollar spent? Is it an expansion of games offered? Or is it simply additional locations to enter and place a bet. In all three of the scenarios, the lottery is the reigning champ of expansion. Arguably, an expansion of locations where one can gamble is the broadest definition. Thus, every time a supermarket or gas station opens, that is a new gambling location. That is where this bill desires to reduce gaming. We will address “internet cafes” and either shut them down or highly regulate them. In doing so, we will see either no or an over 75% reduction in the number of locations. Additionally, placing the lottery under the new gaming commission, could limit its expansion.

There are three other arguments that the “anti-gaming” organizers will use to attack this bill. First, that it will make us “the next Las Vegas or Atlantic City.” Second, that it will cannibalize existing businesses, and third that the social consequences out-weigh any benefit. All are intellectually dishonest. We could never be Vegas or Atlantic City. Vegas is a desert that but for casinos, nobody would visit. Atlantic City was a ghost town before casinos came. Now, casinos are the only attraction. South Florida already is an international destination, adding gaming to high-end resorts only enhances the mix of entertainment options. We are limiting the number of resorts and the new Gaming Commission, together with local governments, will have broad authority to determine how many resorts, their scale, and location.

With respect to cannibalization, arguing against competition is just silly. Quality businesses always survive. Disney will continue to thrive. And Florida, with its “decadent” nightclubs on South Beach, its strip clubs throughout the state, and yes, gambling, has never lost its family friendly image and never will. While it may be true that social ills follow gaming, given the nature of our current offerings, those ills already exist. Arguably, moving from the predatory gaming of local slot barns, Internet cafes, and the lottery toward Destination Resorts could help mitigate these hazards. No one has ever made the argument that more restaurants, bars, or liquor stores produce a greater number of alcoholics. Addiction is what it is and five-star hotels with a limited casino component are less likely to attract the low-income addict.

Lastly, we will have to address parity for the pari-mutuel industry (aka South Florida casinos). In large part we are here because this industry funded the campaign to put slots on the ballot. It opened the door for the Seminole Indian casinos and set us on a path that has created a patchwork quilt of laws difficult to navigate and harness. We will finally address where our state needs to be in years to come. If we fail to do so, we will find ourselves as the number one gaming state within five years and compromise Florida politically and economically. There will be no turning back.

 XXXXX

 (Personal disclosure:  My son Aaron Nevins is Ellyn Bogdanoff’s senior legislative aide.)

A couple of weeks ago I wrote about the differences within ethnic groups that are unknown to the rest of us.

Here’s another one.  This one is close to home

The immigration laws have created a chasm within the Latino Community to such a degree that you might as well say: “There are Hispanics and then there are Cubans.”

That different was originally because Cubans were viewed as refugees from Communism.  Add to that the political clout of the Cubans, especially in the presidential swing state of Florida.

How does it work?

Any Hispanic who enters the U. S. without permission can look forward to someday being dropkicked back over the border.

Except for Cubans. They get to stay.

Any immigrant, legal or illegal, who catches a felony can look forward to a one-way trip back home.

Except for Cubans. They get to stay.

When Non-Cubans finish their time in the hoosegow they can expect to find a hold by immigration that leads to a quick stop at Krome before being booted out of the USA.

Cubans?  Not so much.

Felonies, schmelonies.  The Cuban Adjustment Act keeps them on our streets like they had a Presidential Pardon.

And those are only some of the differences that divides Cubans from all other Latinos.

While not all Cubans believe in the differences, the Cuban GOP Right does.  In fact Senator Marco Rubio, R-Fla, is the poster boy for “Viva la Diferencia”.

He has a view of non-Cuban Hispanics that brings a smile to the most xenophobic GOPers.

For example, he has opposed The Dream Act. It would allow illegals brought here by parents as infants to remain and go to college.

At the same time he has vehemently supported overturning the Wetfoot/Dryfoot policy that sends Cubans back to the island if they are intercepted at sea.

Cubanos Si!  Hispanicos No!

It gets worse.

It’s hard to imagine a Black church welcoming someone who defended lynching or a synagogue welcoming a Holocaust denier.

Rightwing Cubans have no such problem with the equivalent attacks on “other” Hispanics.

They recently welcomed Herman Cain to the Versailles Restaurant without even mentioning that he has repeatedly called for installing a high voltage fence across our southern border.

Cain’s plan is simple:  “Juice a few beaners and the rest will get the message.”

Starting with Rubio, not a single top GOP Cuban has challenged “The Cain Plan.”

I suspect if pressed for a comment, Rubio will only question if the fence will be AC or DC?!

It gets worse.  Ever heard of Virgil Peck?  He’s a GOP leader in the Kansas legislature.

He has a plan to deal with illegals who slip pass Crazy Herman’s electrified fence.  He wants to use helicopters to “shoot them like feral pigs.” Presumably it is always open season and there is no limit on how many you can bag.

I am pretty sure that, should Peck make his way to South Florida, Marco will welcome him with open arms.

After all, his message to the Latino community is simple:  “If you ain’t Cuban, you ain’t shit.”

As part of the latest step in the “liberal media–high tech lynching” conspiracy of Herman Cain a fourth woman has come forward now claiming that she was sexually assaulted by the GOP frontrunner.

Allow me to explain that this is all part of a conspiracy that is older, bigger and deeper than some liberal media wimps.  Its basic goal is to get Barack Obama a second term so he can turn this country over to…you fill in the blank.

By the late 1950’s the KGB concluded that nuclear weapons made a military victory over the USA impossible.  So it was then and there that the Politburo of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union decided to insert what we would now call “A Manchurian Candidate” in the White House.

Knowing that the growing civil rights movement would eventually make a Black electable to the White House, they bred Barack Hussein Obama by inducing the woman who became his  mother to come to Kenya and impregnating her with a local.

To further their credibility, and make it seem like he was born in the US of A,  they planted a fake birth certificate in the Hawaiian government records along with birth announcements in the local newspapers.

Now you’re going to have to wait for my book to find out how the assassinations of JFK, RFK , MLK and the Reagan shooting all play into this. But take my word they do.

Suffice it to be that by the 1990’s  the Russkies had convinced the world that the Soviet Union had collapsed so they were able to put forward anyone they wanted since the public had bought the notion that the Commie threat was over.

Correctly assessing that in 2012 the Republicans might figure that “it takes one to catch one,” they looked around and concluded that businessman Herman Cain was the most likely person.  So in the late 1990’s they phonied up some sexual harassment charges that they were able to plant like time bombs which would go off when they wanted.

As an aside, you don’t really believe it was accident that Rick Perry was tricked into owning a piece of property called “niggerhead”?

Something else you need to know.  Ever notice that you have never seen Mitt Romney walking through a metal detector? Admit it, you haven’t.  That’s because he is an android planted by the KGB.

Anyway back to the issue before us. Herman Cain is the victim of a long-coming Soviet plot to discredit this great American.

And if you don’t believe me then you must be part of the plot…ask Glenn Beck.  Wherever he is.

We all know about playing cops and robbers.  How many of us know about cops versus firemen or cops versus cops?

Last week, when a FHP officer arrested a City of Miami cop for Reckless Driving, the public got a taste of what I have known my whole life– sometimes cops fight with cops and “professional courtesy” is sometimes a cover-up for special privileges.  I say my whole life because my father was a Detective in the NYPD and I have been a criminal defense lawyer for the last thirty years.

Let me start out by saying FHP Trooper Donna Watts is the “good guy” in this whole thing.

It was 6:30 a. m. and still dark when she observed a police vehicle doing 120 mph, weaving in and out of traffic without overhead lights on.  So she put on her lights looking for it to stop.  For a number of minutes he continued to ignore her.

Without stopping the vehicle there was no way for her to know what was going on.

Was the car stolen leaving a cop bleeding out on the side of the road?

Was the driver drunk?

Was he on an emergency call but his lights were not functioning? Would he need backup?

Why was he not responding to her lights and sirens?

At some point she may or may not been told to back off but declined that invitation.

These and a hundred other explanations were possible.

Rushing At 120 mph to Second Job

It turned out that the driver was a self important, arrogant jerk who was late to an off-duty assignment where he makes extra $$$$.

For $15 bucks-an-hour he was risking two cops and an entire highway of civilians.

“Late to work”?  It’s an excuse that has been fruitlessly offered to traffic cops since the first Model T.

When he finally pulled over he still would not respond to commands. Trooper Watts drew her gun and repeated the command.

The driver of the patrol car was Miami Police Off. Fausto Lopez.  If the driver was a civilian he would have been looking at a life changing set of charges.

Speeding over 50 mph has a mandatory $1000 fine and probably a Drivers License suspension.  Add to this are misdemeanors of Reckless Driving and Resisting without Violence. Topping it off is the felony of Fleeing- and-Eluding which carries a mandatory adjudication making you a convicted felon for life.

Imagine if she had backed off and there was an accident which resulted in a death or injury?

Under that scenario all those attacking her on blogs would be singing a different song…Oh, Danny Boy…while Lopez was being carried out by six.

Under the euphemism of “professional courtesy” cops often cut each other slack.

This was over the line as is the vitriol against Watts that has appeared on cop blogs.  We have to ask ourselves how much of this is trooper versus cop and how much is it the idea that Lopez was arrested by a woman?

Donna Watts followed the rules and for this she is being hung out to dry.

It makes you wonder about the culture within law enforcement.